BACKGROUNDPine wilt disease has caused significant economic, ecological, and social losses in China, but there is a notable lack of research on the dynamic process of its propagation and diffusion over long timescales. This study revealed the spatial and temporal spread of the natural invasion of pine wilt disease through an analysis of long time series at macroscopic scales. We analysed and verified by simulations the driving mechanisms of host and wind fields in the natural spread of pine wilt disease.RESULTSThe research findings indicate that from 1982 to 2019, the number of counties affected by pine wilt disease in the Yangtze River Delta region of China exhibited a pattern of ‘steady increase–fluctuation–outbreak’. The host forest played a decisive role in the natural spread of the disease, while the wind field played a supporting role. The study revealed specific contributions from various factors, where host forest landscape connectivity, host forest area share, mean wind speed, and wind frequency accounted for 31.8%, 28.7%, 22.6%, and 8.8%, respectively. The interaction of increased host forest area and increased wind speed can significantly increase the risk of pine wilt disease transmission. To validate these findings, vectorial metacellular automata simulations of pine nematode transmission in the Yangtze River Delta were conducted, yielding results with an accuracy of 0.803.CONCLUSIONBy quantifying the contribution of host forest connectivity to the natural spread of pine wilt disease, this research offers a scientific foundation and innovative insights for preventing and controlling its dissemination. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

中文翻译：

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寄主植被的连通性对于松材线虫病的自然传播至关重要


背景松材线虫病在我国造成了重大的经济、生态和社会损失，但对其长期传播和扩散的动态过程的研究却明显缺乏。这项研究通过宏观尺度的长期时间序列分析揭示了松材线虫病自然入侵的空间和时间传播。通过模拟分析验证了松材线虫病自然传播中寄主场和风场的驱动机制。 结果研究结果表明，1982年至2019年，我国长三角地区受松材线虫病影响的县数呈现出“平稳增长——波动——爆发”的格局。寄主林对病害自然传播起决定性作用，而风场则起辅助作用。研究揭示了各种因素的具体贡献，其中寄主森林景观连通性、寄主森林面积份额、平均风速和风频率分别占31.8%、28.7%、22.6%和8.8%。寄主森林面积增加和风速增加的相互作用会显着增加松材线虫病传播的风险。为了验证这些发现，我们对长江三角洲的松树线虫传播进行了矢量元细胞自动机模拟，结果精度为 0.803。结论通过量化寄主森林连通性对松材线虫病自然传播的贡献，本研究提供了预防和控制其传播的科学基础和创新见解。 © 2024 化学工业协会。