Evacuation after hurricane impacts appear (post-impact evacuation) has been underemphasized in empirical evacuation studies. This study uses well-examined factors for pre-impact evacuation and novel factors for post-impact evacuation in a sequential logit model for pre- and post-impact evacuation choices. Results show that the evacuation warning is the only factor that affected both pre-impact and post-impact evacuations. Demographics and housing characteristics are significant factors for pre-impact evacuation but not for post-impact evacuation, while residential damages and durations of utility outages are significant situational factors for post-impact evacuation. The durations of water and power outages had additive effects on the probability of evacuating after hurricane impact. Based on the results, we argue that the conventional assumption that sheltered-in-place residents will remain in the affected area, and the restoration planning and assistance generated with that premise will not be aligned with the demand of residents facing inhabitable living situations with damaged residences and prolonged utility outages. Agencies should consider extending the evacuation planning time horizon for storm events likely to induce severe damages and outages and prepare for evacuation during disrupted conditions.

中文翻译：

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评估影响前和影响后的疏散行为——对路易斯安那州沿海和密西西比州飓风艾达的实证研究


在实证疏散研究中，飓风影响出现后的疏散（影响后疏散）一直被低估。本研究在序列 Logit 模型中使用经过充分检验的撞击前疏散因素和撞击后疏散的新因素来进行撞击前和撞击后疏散选择。结果表明，疏散警告是影响撞击前和撞击后疏散的唯一因素。人口统计和住房特征是影响前疏散的重要因素，但不是影响后疏散的重要因素，而住宅损坏和公用事业中断的持续时间是影响后疏散的重要情境因素。停水和停电的持续时间对飓风影响后疏散的可能性有附加影响。根据结果​​，我们认为，传统的假设是就地庇护居民将留在受影响地区，并且在此前提下制定的恢复规划和援助将不符合面临受损居住环境的居民的需求。住宅和长期公用事业中断。各机构应考虑延长可能导致严重损坏和停电的风暴事件的疏散计划时间范围，并为受干扰情况下的疏散做好准备。