In Australia, the National Electricity Market (NEM) has experienced a rapid expansion of Variable Renewable Electricity (VRE) projects, not without obstacles. Entry frictions such as movements in Marginal Loss Factors and/or network congestion adversely impacted ∼15% of new projects. Are these the expected results in a workably functioning market, or due to market design defects? Policy advisors have sought to reform the NEM's non-firm, open-access regime. As VRE market shares increase, curtailment will increase rapidly through excess generation and/or network congestion, given the ratio of maximum-to-average wind output is 3 times, and solar PV is 4 times. But access reform focused solely on congestion and curtailment may have unintended consequences as a careful analysis of the difference between average and marginal curtailment rates demonstrates. Malalignment between market conventions and access policy may distort entry, raise consumer prices and harm welfare. Our model results confirm that switching from open- to priority access in Australia's NEM and REZ in particular damages consumer and producer welfare materially.

中文翻译：

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非固定接入与优先接入：澳大利亚可再生能源的长期平均成本和边际成本


在澳大利亚，国家电力市场（NEM）经历了可变可再生电力（VRE）项目的快速扩张，但并非没有障碍。边际损失系数变动和/或网络拥塞等进入摩擦对约 15% 的新项目产生了不利影响。这些是正常运作的市场的预期结果，还是由于市场设计缺陷？政策顾问一直在寻求改革新经济模式的非公司、开放准入制度。随着 VRE 市场份额的增加，由于发电量过剩和/或网络拥堵，限电将迅速增加，因为风电最大与平均发电量之比为 3 倍，太阳能光伏发电为 4 倍。但对平均限电率和边际限电率之间差异的仔细分析表明，仅关注拥堵和限电的接入改革可能会产生意想不到的后果。市场惯例与准入政策之间的不一致可能会扭曲进入、提高消费者价格并损害福利。我们的模型结果证实，澳大利亚 NEM 和 REZ 从开放准入转向优先准入尤其会严重损害消费者和生产者的福利。