We study the impact of supply disruptions on sourcing strategies when product life cycles are short and future demand depends on current sales. We introduce the concept of order policies with anticipatory orders where some or all of orders with the unreliable supplier in future periods are moved to an earlier period. Using a 2-period model, we show that despite incurring additional holding cost when inventory is carried to a future period, anticipatory orders from the unreliable supplier are valuable when dealing with disruption risk when future demand depends on current sales. We find that anticipatory orders are less pronounced when future demand is more independent of current sales. We show that anticipatory orders from the unreliable supplier continue to be optimal for a range of disruption probabilities even when we include a responsive and reliable supplier.

中文翻译：

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使用预期订单来管理短产品生命周期内的中断风险


我们研究当产品生命周期较短且未来需求取决于当前销售时供应中断对采购策略的影响。我们引入了带有预期订单的订单策略的概念，其中未来时期与不可靠供应商的部分或全部订单被转移到较早时期。使用两期模型，我们表明，尽管当库存转移到未来期间时会产生额外的持有成本，但当未来需求取决于当前销售时，在处理中断风险时，来自不可靠供应商的预期订单是有价值的。我们发现，当未来需求更加独立于当前销售时，预期订单就不那么明显。我们表明，即使我们包括响应迅速且可靠的供应商，来自不可靠供应商的预期订单对于一系列中断概率仍然是最佳的。