We analyze the relation between virtual stock holding changes on a social trading platform and stock holding changes of all private investors in a national economy. Our data sources are the social trading platform com and the () of the German central bank. We find that the transactions of signal providers on are a good proxy for aggregate transactions of private investors – mirrored by the – during the same month, and a good predictor for the aggregate transactions of the private investors in the following month.

中文翻译：

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社交交易平台上的交易是否可以预测整个私营部门的股票市场行为？


我们分析了社交交易平台上的虚拟持股变化与国民经济中所有私人投资者的持股变化之间的关系。我们的数据来源是社交交易平台com和德国央行的()。我们发现，信号提供者的交易可以很好地代表当月私人投资者的总交易量（由 来反映），并且可以很好地预测下个月私人投资者的总交易量。