Dry and humid-heat extremes are two types of heat extremes, each exhibiting unique climatological characteristics and impacts on different sectors of society. Using historical simulations and projections produced under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) by models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comparative assessment of the future changes in dry- and humid-heat extremes over global land. Relative to 1995–2014, projections for the mid-term future (2041–2060) and long-term future (2081–2100) periods suggest that most global regions will experience an increase in frequency and intensity of both dry- and humid-heat extremes, especially the tropical regions. In these future periods, the peak occurrences of dry- and humid-heat extremes in mid-to high-latitude regions often occur within the same month. However, there will be a one-to two-month gap between the peak occurrences of dry- and humid-heat extremes in tropical regions, primarily due to monsoonal circulations that introduce variability by causing dry-heat extremes before the onset of monsoons and humid-heat extremes as the monsoons commence. This suggests the need for sector-specific adaptation strategies during different periods of the year for tropical regions. Under both future scenarios, whether considering individual exposure or land area, the average level of exposure to extreme humid-heat days is projected to increase more significantly compared to dry-heat days. The above results highlight the risks associated with the intensification of humid heat in future climate scenarios and warrant the development of effective strategies to mitigate the adverse effects.

中文翻译：

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气候变暖中干热和湿热极端事件的比较评估：频率、强度和季节时间


极端干热和湿热是极端高温的两种类型，每种都表现出独特的气候特征和对社会不同部门的影响。利用耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP6) 第六阶段的模型在两个共享社会经济路径（SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5）下进行的历史模拟和预测，我们对未来干湿变化进行了比较评估-全球陆地上空的极端高温。相对于1995年至2014年，对中期未来（2041年至2060年）和长期未来（2081年至2100年）的预测表明，全球大多数地区将经历干热和湿热的频率和强度增加极端情况，尤其是热带地区。未来一段时期，中高纬度地区干热和湿热极端事件的高峰往往发生在同一个月内。然而，热带地区干热和湿热极端事件的峰值之间将存在一到两个月的差距，这主要是由于季风环流在季风爆发之前引起干热极端事件和湿热极端事件，从而引入变异性。 - 季风开始时出现极端高温。这表明热带地区需要在一年中的不同时期制定针对具体部门的适应战略。在未来的两种情景下，无论是考虑个人暴露还是土地面积，与干热天相比，极端湿热天的平均暴露水平预计将显着增加。上述结果凸显了未来气候情景中与湿热加剧相关的风险，并需要制定有效的策略来减轻不利影响。