Drought is one of the key drivers of food insecurity in Afghanistan, which is among the most food insecure countries in the world. In this study, we build on previous research and seek to answer the central question: ?” We do so by utilizing multiple indicators of droughts and available wheat yield reports. We find a clear distinction in the probability of drought (defined as being in the lower tercile) in Afghanistan during La Niña compared to El Niño events since 1981. The probability of drought in Afghanistan increased during La Niña, particularly in the North, Northeast, and West regions. La Niña events are related to an increase in the probability of snow drought, particularly in parts of the Amu Darya basin. It is found that relative to El Niño events, snow water equivalent [total runoff] during La Niña events January–March (March–July total runoff) decreases between 9% and 30% (28%–42%) for the five major basins in the country. The probability of agricultural drought during La Niña events is found to be higher than 70% in the rainfed and irrigated areas of the Northeast, North, and West regions. This result is at least partly supported by reported wheat yield composites related to La Niña events that tend to be lower than for El Niño events across all regions in the case of rainfed wheat (statistically significant in Northeast, West, and South regions) and in some cases for irrigated wheat. The results of this study have direct implications for improving early warning of worsening food insecurity in Afghanistan during La Niña events, given that we now have long-lead and skillful forecasts of ENSO up to 18–24 months in advance, which could potentially be used to provide earlier warning of worsening food insecurity in Afghanistan

中文翻译：

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基于 ENSO 的阿富汗干旱和农业成果展望


干旱是阿富汗粮食不安全的主要原因之一，阿富汗是世界上粮食最不安全的国家之一。在这项研究中，我们以之前的研究为基础，试图回答核心问题：？”我们通过利用多个干旱指标和现有的小麦产量报告来做到这一点。我们发现，与 1981 年以来的厄尔尼诺事件相比，拉尼娜期间阿富汗发生干旱（定义为下三分位数）的概率存在明显区别。拉尼娜期间，阿富汗发生干旱的概率有所增加，特别是在北部、东北部、和西部地区。拉尼娜事件与雪旱可能性增加有关，特别是在阿姆河盆地的部分地区。研究发现，相对于厄尔尼诺事件，拉尼娜事件期间1-3月（3-7月总径流），五个主要流域的雪水当量[总径流]减少了9%~30%（28%~42%）。在国内。拉尼娜事件期间，东北、华北、西部等雨灌区和灌溉区发生农业干旱的概率高于70%。这一结果至少在一定程度上得到了与拉尼娜事件相关的小麦产量综合报告的支持，对于雨养小麦（在东北、西部和南部地区统计显着），所有地区的拉尼娜事件往往低于厄尔尼诺事件。一些灌溉小麦的情况。鉴于我们现在可以提前 18-24 个月对 ENSO 进行长期且熟练的预测，这项研究的结果对于改善拉尼娜事件期间阿富汗粮食不安全状况恶化的早期预警具有直接影响就阿富汗粮食不安全状况恶化发出早期警告