Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

中文翻译：

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风暴潮和极端海平面：审查、建立模型比较和协调风暴潮气候预测工作（SurgeMIP）。


沿海洪水破坏主要是极端海平面造成的。气候变化预计将导致这些极端事件的增加。虽然正确估计风暴潮的变化对于估计极端海平面的变化至关重要，但人们对风暴潮对极端海平面影响的未来趋势仍然信心不足。向当地居民发出即将到来的极端海平面警报对于保护沿海居民也至关重要。预测和预测极端海平面都需要可靠的数值预测系统。 SurgeMIP（浪涌模型比对）社区的成立就是为了应对此类挑战。介绍了相互比较风暴潮预测系统和协调社区预测和预测工作的努力。简要介绍了风暴潮科学过去和最近的进展，例如要考虑的物理过程以及全球预报系统的最新发展。还讨论了针对适应考虑因素的紧急响应的特定历史事件和快速增长的服务和知识需求背后的驱动因素。介绍了社区的初步计划和近期进展。其中包括建立比对项目、确定研究和开发差距以及努力协调跨多种气候情景的预测。