Forecasting and uncertainty analysis of tailings dam system safety based on data mining techniques,Applied Mathematical Modelling

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Forecasting and uncertainty analysis of tailings dam system safety based on data mining techniques
Applied Mathematical Modelling ( IF 4.4 ) Pub Date : 2024-06-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2024.05.037
Tengteng Hao , Kaili Xu , Xin Zheng , Bo Liu , Jishuo Li

Tailings dams, as critical infrastructure, play a vital role in ensuring the safety and reliability of tailings pond systems. Predicting the trend of tailings dam monitoring parameters helps monitor its operational status and support safety management and decision-making. The traditional time series prediction model focuses on point prediction while neglecting the nonlinear feature of data and the uncertainty of prediction results, which is far from meeting the requirements for risk monitoring and safety management of tailings dam systems. To address this, Deep Auto-Encoder is used to extract and optimize features of multi-dimensional time series; Whale Optimization Algorithm, Long Short Term Memory, and Kernel Density Estimation are used to build a monitoring parameters trend interval prediction model. It can effectively predict and analyze the uncertainty of tailings dam monitoring parameters. Time series data of monitoring parameters are collected from a tailings dam in Anhui, China and modeled to verify the effectiveness of the model. The results show that the hybrid prediction model performs the best in monitoring parameter prediction accuracy and trend. The Root Mean Square Error values of the Whale Optimization Algorithm and Long Short Term Memory prediction for reservoir water level, surface displacement, internal displacement, phreatic line, and beach width are 0.0160, 1.0405, 0.0389, 0.0176, and 0.7525, with errors reduced by 0.37 % to 17.92 % compared to other models. The uncertainty analysis confirms the high reliability of the model. The Kernel Density Estimation effectively forecasts the fluctuation range of predicted values, significantly improving the prediction effectiveness of the monitoring parameters.

更新日期：2024-06-01

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