Power generation from biomass (biopower) has experienced substantial growth in the United States. Although renewable and sustainably sourced biopower can reduce the carbon footprint of the electricity sector, there is a scarcity of analyses that simultaneously consider the financial feasibility and sustainability criteria of procured biomass. We developed a spatially-explicit optimization model to minimize the cost of meeting projected biopower demand while ensuring carbon neutrality and biomass sustainability constraints. The optimization model was applied to projected biopower demand scenarios in the eastern US, considering various public policy decarbonization interventions. Modeling woody biomass procured from local forests as the source of biopower was chosen due to its dominant role as a renewable energy source, regional availability, and lower risk of violating carbon neutrality objectives. Initially, we projected the net growth of woody biomass in trees and their carbon pools by 2035, as a function of biopower generation, utilizing data from 2009–2017. Subsequently, forecasted woody biomass and projected biopower demand through 2035 were employed to determine optimal levels of biopower generation and estimate the corresponding resource impacts within procurement forests. The results suggest the potential for substantial increases in sustainable biopower generation in the eastern US. However, the feasibility of this expansion depends on the continued economic viability of biopower generation in the future. It is worth noting that the largest increases, surpassing threefold, in biopower generation over the 2020–2030 decade could potentially compromise the carbon neutrality of locally procured woody biomass.

中文翻译：

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满足预计生物电力需求以支持脱碳干预措施的可行性：应用于美国东部木质生物质的空间显式成本优化模型


生物质发电（生物电力）在美国经历了大幅增长。尽管可再生和可持续来源的生物能源可以减少电力部门的碳足迹，但缺乏同时考虑采购生物质的财务可行性和可持续性标准的分析。我们开发了一个空间明确的优化模型，以最大限度地降低满足预计生物能源需求的成本，同时确保碳中和和生物质可持续性约束。考虑到各种公共政策脱碳干预措施，优化模型应用于美国东部预计的生物能源需求情景。选择对从当地森林采购的木质生物质作为生物能源进行建模，是因为其作为可再生能源的主导作用、区域可用性以及违反碳中和目标的风险较低。最初，我们利用 2009 年至 2017 年的数据，预测到 2035 年树木及其碳库中木质生物量的净增长，作为生物发电的函数。随后，利用预测的木质生物量和预计到 2035 年的生物发电需求来确定生物发电的最佳水平，并估计采购森林内相应的资源影响。结果表明，美国东部可持续生物发电有大幅增长的潜力。然而，这种扩张的可行性取决于未来生物发电的持续经济可行性。值得注意的是，2020 年至 2030 年十年间，生物发电量增幅最大，超过三倍，可能会损害当地采购的木质生物质的碳中和性。