Lake management actions are required to protect lake ecosystems that are being threatened by climate change. Freshwater lakes in semiarid regions are of upmost importance to their region. Simulations of the subtropical Lake Kinneret project that rising temperatures will cause change to phytoplankton species composition, including increased cyanobacteria blooms, endangering lake ecosystem services. Using lake ecosystem models, we examined several management actions under climate change, including two alternatives of desalinated water introduction into the lake, hypolimnetic water withdrawal, watershed management changes and low versus high lake water level. To account for prediction uncertainty, we utilized an ensemble of two 1D hydrodynamic—biogeochemical lake models along with 500 realizations of meteorological conditions. Results suggest that supplying desalinated water for local use, thus releasing more natural waters through the Jordan River, increasing nutrient flow, may reduce cyanobacteria blooms, mitigating climate change effects. However, these results are accompanied by considerable uncertainty.

需要采取湖泊管理行动来保护受到气候变化威胁的湖泊生态系统。半干旱地区的淡水湖泊对该地区至关重要。对亚热带基内雷特湖的模拟预测，气温上升将导致浮游植物物种组成发生变化，包括蓝藻大量繁殖，危及湖泊生态系统服务。利用湖泊生态系统模型，我们研究了气候变化下的几种管理行动，包括将淡化水引入湖泊、低湖水抽取、流域管理变化以及低湖水位与高湖水位的两种替代方案。为了解释预测的不确定性，我们利用了两个一维水动力生物地球化学湖泊模型以及 500 个气象条件的集合。结果表明，供应淡化水供当地使用，从而通过约旦河释放更多的天然水，增加营养物流量，可能会减少蓝藻水华，减轻气候变化的影响。然而，这些结果伴随着相当大的不确定性。