A higher U.S. government debt-to-output (D-O) ratio does not forecast higher surpluses or lower returns on Treasurys in the future. Neither future cash flows nor discount rates account for the variation in the current D-O ratio. The market valuation of Treasurys is surprisingly insensitive to macro fundamentals. Instead, the future D-O ratio accounts for most of the variation because the D-O ratio is highly persistent. Systematic surplus forecast errors may help account for these findings. Since the start of the Global Financial Crisis, surplus projections have anticipated a large fiscal correction that failed to materialize.

中文翻译：

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是什么推动了美国债务产出比的变化？不叫的狗


美国政府债务与产出 (D-O) 比率较高并不预示着未来盈余会增加或国债回报率会降低。未来现金流量和贴现率都无法解释当前 D-O 比率的变化。令人惊讶的是，国债的市场估值对宏观基本面不敏感。相反，未来的 D-O 比率是造成大部分变化的原因，因为 D-O 比率具有高度持久性。系统性盈余预测误差可能有助于解释这些发现。自全球金融危机爆发以来，盈余预测预计将出现大规模财政调整，但未能实现。