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Gaps and opportunities in modelling human influence on species distributions in the Anthropocene
Nature Ecology & Evolution ( IF 13.9 ) Pub Date : 2024-06-12 , DOI: 10.1038/s41559-024-02435-3
Veronica F Frans 1, 2, 3 , Jianguo Liu 1, 2
Affiliation  

Understanding species distributions is a global priority for mitigating environmental pressures from human activities. Ample studies have identified key environmental (climate and habitat) predictors and the spatial scales at which they influence species distributions. However, regarding human influence, such understandings are largely lacking. Here, to advance knowledge concerning human influence on species distributions, we systematically reviewed species distribution modelling (SDM) articles and assessed current modelling efforts. We searched 12,854 articles and found only 1,429 articles using human predictors within SDMs. Collectively, these studies of >58,000 species used 2,307 unique human predictors, suggesting that in contrast to environmental predictors, there is no ‘rule of thumb’ for human predictor selection in SDMs. The number of human predictors used across studies also varied (usually one to four per study). Moreover, nearly half the articles projecting to future climates held human predictors constant over time, risking false optimism about the effects of human activities compared with climate change. Advances in using human predictors in SDMs are paramount for accurately informing and advancing policy, conservation, management and ecology. We show considerable gaps in including human predictors to understand current and future species distributions in the Anthropocene, opening opportunities for new inquiries. We pose 15 questions to advance ecological theory, methods and real-world applications.



中文翻译:


模拟人类世对物种分布影响的差距和机遇



了解物种分布是减轻人类活动造成的环境压力的全球优先事项。大量研究已经确定了关键的环境(气候和栖息地)预测因素及其影响物种分布的空间尺度。然而,对于人类的影响,这种认识却很缺乏。在这里,为了增进有关人类对物种分布影响的了解,我们系统地回顾了物种分布建模 (SDM) 文章并评估了当前的建模工作。我们搜索了 12,854 篇文章,仅发现 1,429 篇在 SDM 中使用人类预测因子的文章。总的来说,这些针对超过 58,000 个物种的研究使用了 2,307 个独特的人类预测因子,这表明与环境预测因子相比,SDM 中不存在用于人类预测因子选择的“经验法则”。各个研究中使用的人类预测因子的数量也各不相同(通常每个研究一到四个)。此外,近一半预测未来气候的文章都认为人类预测因素随着时间的推移保持不变,这有可能对人类活动对气候变化的影响产生错误的乐观态度。在 SDM 中使用人类预测因子的进步对于准确告知和推进政策、保护、管理和生态至关重要。我们在将人类预测因素纳入人类世当前和未来物种分布方面显示出相当大的差距,为新的调查提供了机会。我们提出了 15 个问题来推进生态理论、方法和现实世界的应用。

更新日期:2024-06-12
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