Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

中文翻译：

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2023年全球气候变化指标：气候系统状况和人类影响关键指标的年度更新


摘要。政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 的评估是根据联合国气候变化框架公约 (UNFCCC) 进行的气候谈判的可靠科学证据来源。循证决策需要了解关于气候系统状况和人类对全球气候系统影响的关键指标的最新和及时的信息。然而，连续的 IPCC 报告每隔 5 至 10 年发布一次，因此报告周期之间可能存在信息差距。我们遵循的方法尽可能接近 IPCC 第六次评估报告 (AR6) 第一工作组 (WGI) 报告中使用的方法。我们编制监测数据集，以对与气候系统强迫相关的关键气候指标进行估计：温室气体和短期气候强迫因素的排放、温室气体浓度、辐射强迫、地球能量失衡、地表温度变化、人类造成的变暖活动、剩余碳预算以及全球极端温度的估计。这项工作以开放数据、开放科学方法为基础，其目的是在公共领域提供每年更新的可靠全球气候指标（https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387，Smith 等人） ., 2024a)。由于它们可追溯到IPCC报告方法，因此可以得到参与UNFCCC谈判的所有各方的信任，并有助于传达对气候系统及其行进方向的最新知识的更广泛的理解。指标显示，2014年至2023年十年平均值中，观测到的升温为1.19 [1.06至1.30]°C，其中1.19 [1.0至1.4]°C是人为引起的。就单年平均而言，人类引起的变暖达到 1.31 [1.1 比 1.7] 相对于 1850-1900 年，2023 年气温将下降至 °C。最佳估计低于 2023 年观测到的升温记录 1.43 [1.32 至 1.53]°C，这表明 2023 年记录中内部变化的贡献很大。人为引起的变暖一直在以仪器记录中前所未有的速度增加，2014-2023 年期间达到每十年 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C。如此高的变暖速度是由于过去十年中温室气体净排放量持续保持在 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 的高位，以及气溶胶冷却强度的降低共同造成的。尽管如此，有证据表明，过去十年二氧化碳排放量的增长速度与 2000 年代相比有所放缓，并且根据社会选择，在 2020 年代关键的十年中持续进行一系列年度更新可能会跟踪二氧化碳排放方向的变化。这里介绍的一些指标。