New York City (NYC) faces many challenges in the coming decades due to climate change and its interactions with social vulnerabilities and uneven urban development patterns and processes. This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) report contributes to the Panel's mandate to advise the city on climate change and provide timely climate risk information that can inform flexible and equitable adaptation pathways that enhance resilience to climate change. This report presents up-to-date scientific information as well as updated sea level rise projections of record. We also present a new methodology related to climate extremes and describe new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. Future work by the Panel should compare the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report with a subset of models to determine the potential impact and relevance of the “hot model” problem. NPCC4 expects to establish new projections-of-record for precipitation and temperature in 2024 based on this comparison and additional analysis. Nevertheless, the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report may be useful for NYC stakeholders in the interim as they rely on the newest generation of global climate models.

中文翻译：

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NPCC4：2022 年纽约市气候风险信息 - 观察和预测


由于气候变化及其与社会脆弱性和不平衡的城市发展模式和进程的相互作用，纽约市 (NYC) 在未来几十年面临许多挑战。纽约市气候变化专门委员会 (NPCC) 的这份报告有助于该小组履行其职责，即就气候变化向该市提供建议，并提供及时的气候风险信息，为灵活、公平的适应途径提供信息，从而增强对气候变化的抵御能力。该报告提供了最新的科学信息以及最新的海平面上升预测记录。我们还提出了一种与极端气候相关的新方法，并描述了为纽约大都市区制定下一代气候预测的新方法。专家组未来的工作应将本报告中提出的温度和降水预测与模型子集进行比较，以确定“热模型”问题的潜在影响和相关性。 NPCC4 预计将根据这一比较和附加分析，对 2024 年降水量和气温作出新的记录预测。尽管如此，本报告中提出的温度和降水预测可能对纽约市利益相关者暂时有用，因为他们依赖最新一代的全球气候模型。