Angola is exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, and sectors such as health, agricultural, water resources and ecosystems may endure severe impacts. Here, an extensive analysis of the signal of climate change on temperature, precipitation, extremes and compound events, for the end of the 21st century, is presented. The analysis is based on a CORDEX-Africa multi-model ensemble at 0.44° resolution built with 19 individual simulations, which allows a robust study of climate change future projections and depict model's uncertainty. For the RCP8.5, the end of the century future warming can reach maxima values 7 °C for maximum temperature in south-eastern Angola, and 6 °C for minimum temperature. The extreme temperatures (90th percentile) is projected to rise more than 7 °C in southern areas. In general, projections display a rainfall reduction in the drier seasons and a rise in the wet seasons, leading to sharper annual cycles; it is also projected a growth on extreme precipitation (95th percentile), as much as plus 50 % in some coastal regions. Angola is projected to endure in the future more frequent and longer heatwaves and droughts. In agreement with the RCP8.5, up to 10 heatwaves and more 4 moderate droughts will occur, respectively in coastal and interior areas. Finally, the number of days when a compound of heatwave and moderate drought occurs is projected to growth immensely, around +30 % for many regions, which corresponds to multiply by 10 these events in the future. For the RCP4.5, changes are projected to be smaller but significant in what regards especially extremes and compound events. The magnitude of the projected changes for vulnerable countries as Angola constitute an urgent call for global mitigation and national to regional adaptation strategies, and ultimately to a constant effort of updating and deepen the quality of climate information produced.

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安哥拉未来的极端和复合事件：CORDEX-非洲区域气候模拟预测


安哥拉特别容易受到气候变化的影响，卫生、农业、水资源和生态系统等部门可能遭受严重影响。本文对 21 世纪末气温、降水、极端事件和复合事件等气候变化信号进行了广泛分析。该分析基于分辨率为 0.44° 的 CORDEX-Africa 多模型集合，该集合通过 19 个单独的模拟构建，可以对气候变化的未来预测进行稳健的研究并描述模型的不确定性。对于RCP8.5，到本世纪末，安哥拉东南部的最高气温将达到最大值7°C，最低气温将达到6°C。南部地区的极端气温（第 90 个百分点）预计将上升 7°C 以上。一般来说，预测显示旱季降雨量减少，雨季降雨量增加，导致年度周期更加剧烈；预计极端降水量（第 95 个百分点）也会增加，在一些沿海地区将增加 50%。预计安哥拉未来将遭受更频繁和更长时间的热浪和干旱。与 RCP8.5 一致，沿海地区和内陆地区将分别出现多达 10 次热浪和 4 次以上中度干旱。最后，热浪和中度干旱混合发生的天数预计将大幅增长，许多地区约为 +30%，相当于未来此类事件的天数增加 10 倍。对于 RCP4.5，预计变化较小，但在极端事件和复合事件方面变化显着。 安哥拉等脆弱国家预计发生的巨大变化迫切需要全球缓解气候变化和国家到区域的适应战略，并最终不断努力更新和提高所产生的气候信息的质量。