Despite frequent claims regarding radical extensions of human lifespan in the near future, many pragmatic scientists caution against excessive and baseless optimism on this front. In this study, we examine the compensation effect of mortality (CEM) as a potential challenge to substantial lifespan extension. The CEM is an empirical mortality regularity, often depicted as relative mortality convergence at advanced ages. Analysis of mortality data from 44 human populations, available in the Human Mortality Database, demonstrated that CEM can be represented as a continuous decline in relative mortality variation (assessed through the coefficient of variation and the standard deviation of the logarithm of mortality) with age, reaching a minimum corresponding to the species-specific lifespan. Through this method, the species-specific lifespan is determined to be 96–97 years, closely aligning with estimates derived from correlations between Gompertz parameters (95–98 years). Importantly, this representation of CEM can be achieved non-parametrically, eliminating the need for estimating Gompertz parameters. CEM is a challenge to lifespan extension, because it suggests that the true aging rate in humans (based on loss of vital elements, e.g., functional cells) remains stable at approximately 1% per year in the majority of human populations and is not affected by environmental or familial longevity factors. Given this rate of functional cell loss, one might anticipate that the total pool of functional cells could be entirely depleted by the age of 115–120 years creating physiological limit to human lifespan. Mortality pattern of supercentenarians (110 + years) aligns with this prediction.

尽管人们经常声称在不久的将来人类寿命会大幅延长，但许多务实的科学家警告不要在这方面过度和毫无根据的乐观。在这项研究中，我们将死亡率（CEM）的补偿效应视为对大幅延长寿命的潜在挑战。 CEM 是一种经验死亡率规律，通常被描述为高龄时的相对死亡率趋同。对人类死亡率数据库中 44 个人群的死亡率数据进行的分析表明，CEM 可以表示为相对死亡率变异（通过变异系数和死亡率对数标准差进行评估）随着年龄的增长而持续下降，达到与物种特定寿命相对应的最小值。通过这种方法，物种特定的寿命被确定为 96-97 岁，与根据 Gompertz 参数之间的相关性得出的估计值（95-98 岁）密切一致。重要的是，这种 CEM 表示可以通过非参数方式实现，从而无需估计 Gompertz 参数。 CEM 是延长寿命的一个挑战，因为它表明，在大多数人群中，人类的真实衰老率（基于重要元素的丧失，例如功能细胞）保持稳定在每年 1% 左右，并且不受环境或家庭长寿因素。鉴于功能细胞的这种损失率，人们可能预计到 115-120 岁时，功能细胞总数可能会完全耗尽，从而对人类寿命造成生理限制。超级百岁老人（110 岁以上）的死亡率模式与这一预测相符。