Various predictive models for the seismically-induced displacement () of flexible slopes during shallow crustal earthquakes are available in the literature, but the model-to-model difference of predictions remains unclear. This paper conducts a comprehensive comparative study of ten representative models based on scenario- and probabilistic-based displacement analyses. Explicit expressions are provided to implement the probabilistic displacement hazard approach, in which copula theory is utilized for deriving the joint occurrence probability of ground-motion parameters. A total of 6048 displacement hazard analyses are performed considering different earthquake and slope scenarios. It is found that the model-to-model difference generally becomes larger with increasing the natural period (T) of a sliding mass, whereas the within-type difference among different coupled models is notably smaller than that of the decoupled models. The coupled-type models generally result in smaller total variability of as compared to the decoupled-type models. Meanwhile, the coupled models tend to, on average, yield larger (or smaller) hazard-consistent than the decoupled models for T larger (or smaller) than an intersection period T, though the difference between the two model types diminishes as T approaches zero. The effects of ground-motion model selection and ground-motion parameter correlation are also discussed. This study could hopefully provide insights into the displacement model selection for the seismic slope performance assessment and regional landslide hazard mapping.

中文翻译：

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浅层地壳地震期间地震引起的边坡位移解耦和耦合预测模型的比较研究


文献中提供了浅层地壳地震期间柔性斜坡地震诱发位移的各种预测模型，但模型之间的预测差异仍不清楚。本文基于情景和基于概率的位移分析，对十种代表性模型进行了全面的比较研究。提供了显式表达式来实现概率位移危险方法，其中利用连接理论来推导地面运动参数的联合出现概率。考虑到不同的地震和斜坡情景，总共进行了 6048 次位移危险分析。研究发现，模型与模型之间的差异通常随着滑动质量自然周期（T）的增加而变大，而不同耦合模型之间的类型内差异明显小于解耦模型。与解耦型模型相比，耦合型模型通常导致较小的总变异性。同时，对于大于（或小于）相交周期 T 的 T，耦合模型平均比解耦模型产生更大（或更小）的危险一致性，尽管两种模型类型之间的差异随着 T 接近零而减小。还讨论了地震动模型选择和地震动参数相关性的影响。这项研究有望为地震边坡性能评估和区域滑坡灾害绘图的位移模型选择提供见解。