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FAST AND ACCURATE POPULATION FORECASTING WITH TWO-SCALE FRACTAL POPULATION DYNAMICS AND ITS APPLICATION TO POPULATION ECONOMICS
Fractals ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2024-05-23 , DOI: 10.1142/s0218348x24500828
YARONG ZHANG 1 , NAVEED ANJUM 2 , DAN TIAN 1 , ABDULRAHMAN ALI ALSOLAMI 3
Affiliation  

One of the major challenges in population economics is accurately predicting population size. Incorrect predictions can lead to ineffective population control policies. Traditional differential models assume a smooth change in population, but this assumption is invalid when measuring population on a small-time scale. To address this change, we developed two-scale fractal population dynamics that can accurately predict population size with minimal experimental data. The Taylor series method is used to reveal the population’s dynamical properties, and the Padé technology is adopted to accelerate the convergence rate.



中文翻译:


二尺度分形人口动力学快速准确人口预测及其在人口经济中的应用



人口经济学的主要挑战之一是准确预测人口规模。不正确的预测可能导致无效的人口控制政策。传统的微分模型假设人口的变化是平滑的,但在小时间尺度上测量人口时,这种假设是无效的。为了应对这一变化,我们开发了两尺度分形种群动态,可以用最少的实验数据准确预测种群规模。采用泰勒级数方法揭示种群的动力学特性,并采用Padé技术加快收敛速度​​。

更新日期:2024-05-27
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