Globally, climate warming is increasing air temperatures and changing river flows, but few studies have explicitly considered the consequences for lake temperatures of these dual effects, or the potential to manage lake inflows to mitigate climate warming impacts. Using a one-dimensional model, we tested the sensitivity of lake temperatures to the separate and interacting effects of changes in air temperature and inflow on a small, short-residence time (annual average ≈ 20 days), temperate lake. Reducing inflow by 70% increased summer lake surface temperatures 1.0–1.2 °C and water column stability by 11–19%, equivalent to the effect of 1.2 °C air temperature warming. Conversely, similar increases in inflow could result in lake summer cooling, sufficient to mitigate 0.75 °C air temperature rise, increasing to more than 1.1 °C if inflow temperature does not rise. We discuss how altering lake inflow volume and temperature could be added to the suite of adaptation measures for lakes.

在全球范围内，气候变暖正在导致气温升高和河流流量变化，但很少有研究明确考虑这些双重效应对湖泊温度的影响，或管理湖泊流入以减轻气候变暖影响的潜力。使用一维模型，我们测试了湖泊温度对气温变化和流入量变化对小型、短停留时间（年平均约 20 天）的温带湖泊的单独和相互作用影响的敏感性。减少 70% 的流入量会使夏季湖面温度提高 1.0–1.2 °C，水柱稳定性提高 11–19%，相当于气温升高 1.2 °C 的效果。相反，类似的流入量增加可能会导致湖泊夏季变冷，足以减轻 0.75 °C 的气温上升，如果流入温度不上升，则增加到 1.1 °C 以上。我们讨论了如何将改变湖泊流入量和温度添加到湖泊适应措施中。