Thirty years ago, rural Americans got married and had children at significantly younger ages than urban Americans. More recent data indicate that these differences persist today, but our understanding of what drives these differences remains limited. To address this gap, we (1) generate Kaplan–Meier estimates of the ages of the first marriage, first union, and first birth among those who lived in rural and urban areas in 2019, (2) evaluate the extent to which rural–urban differences in the timing of family formation reflect selective migration, (3) assess whether rural–urban differences in childhood SES and demographic characteristics further explain differences in timing, and (4) explore rural–urban differences by gender. We find substantial 4.3, 3.8, and 5.1‐year gaps in the ages at which rural and urban women marry, start unions, and become parents, respectively. These gaps largely do not reflect selective migration. Differences in women's age of first birth are attributable to differences in childhood conditions, yet differences in marital and union timing remain unexplained. Rural–urban gaps in the timing of family formation are much larger among women than among men. These patterns of early family formation in rural America have critical implications for families' and children's well‐being as well as rural depopulation.

中文翻译：

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美国农村地区的早期家庭形成、选择性移民和童年状况☆


三十年前，美国农村地区的结婚生子年龄比城市美国人要小得多。最近的数据表明，这些差异至今仍然存在，但我们对造成这些差异的原因的理解仍然有限。为了解决这一差距，我们 (1) 对 2019 年居住在农村和城市地区的人的第一次婚姻、第一次同居和第一次生育的年龄进行了卡普兰-迈耶 (Kaplan-Meier) 估计，(2) 评估农村-家庭形成时间的城市差异反映了选择性迁移，（3）评估儿童社会经济地位和人口特征的城乡差异是否进一步解释了时间差异，（4）按性别探讨城乡差异。我们发现农村和城市女性结婚、结婚和为人父母的年龄分别存在 4.3 岁、3.8 岁和 5.1 岁的巨大差距。这些差距很大程度上并不反映选择性移民。女性第一胎年龄的差异归因于童年条件的差异，但婚姻和结合时间的差异仍然无法解释。女性组建家庭时间的城乡差距远大于男性。美国农村早期家庭形成的这些模式对家庭和儿童的福祉以及农村人口减少具有重要影响。