This paper discusses a puzzle raised by Sharon Berry, published in Analysis. The question in the background of this puzzle is how we should deal with seemingly plausible possibility judgements that commit us to counterfactual truths that find no basis in reality. Three answers to this question and their corresponding solutions to the puzzle will be discussed. The last answer provides a way to make sense of the claim that it is in some cases indeterminate whether a proposition is possible and offers an account of indeterminate modal status.

中文翻译：

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反事实和不确定的可能性


本文讨论了莎朗·贝瑞（Sharon Berry）提出的一个难题，发表在《分析》杂志上。这个谜题背后的问题是，我们应该如何处理看似合理的可能性判断，这些判断使我们陷入在现实中没有根据的反事实真相。我们将讨论这个问题的三个答案及其相应的解决方案。最后一个答案提供了一种方法来理解在某些情况下不确定命题是否可能的主张，并提供了对不确定模态状态的解释。