Egyptian agriculture is challenged by increasing demands from a rapidly expanding population, and insufficient water and arable land resources, exacerbated by the expected impact of climate change further reducing these resources. Recent government policy has focused on large projects to meet increasing demand, with a reduced focus on the livelihoods and economic sustainability of low-income farmers. Insights into variations and changes within the farming population are needed to improve the effectiveness of policies to meet these challenges. This research aims to understand the heterogeneity within farming households in Egypt, to determine the characteristics which best describe these variations, and to trace developments within the sector over recent years and their dependencies on contextual factors. We performed a typology analysis based on the 2012 and 2018 Egyptian labour market panel surveys, identifying and using 12 categorical and 31 continuous variables to describe farming households. Highly skewed continuous variables were transformed, and highly correlated variables were removed. Subsequently, a factor analysis was carried out to determine which variables contribute the most to variation within the dataset. Hierarchical clustering was used to identify the number of clusters and a cluster analysis was carried out to define the clusters. The evolution of the clusters was determined by tracking the households present in both surveys and determining how their type changed between the two surveys. The variables which contributed the most to the variation within the household population were the degree of income diversification, cropping intensity, and water use per unit area. The clustering analysis resulted in four clusters being identified, which were specialised farming, village farming, diversified income, and landlord households. High levels of abandonment of farming were identified, with 45% of households abandoning agricultural activity in 2018 having participated in agriculture in 2012. There was a clear trend towards greater income diversification with 59% of households new to farming in 2018 being part of the diversified income household cluster. The analysis demonstrates a clear trend away from dependence on agricultural income, presenting risks to the sustainability of small-holder farming. Using the characteristics of the household types, this research presents policymakers with the opportunity to simulate responses to policies targeting greater water use efficiency, and increased income for the lowest-income households, and investigate how to meet increasing demand most efficiently. Additionally, it reinforces the global trend towards reduced participation in agricultural activities due to environmental and socioeconomic challenges.

中文翻译：

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埃及农业家庭的类型学分析揭示了收入多样化的增加和农业活动的放弃


埃及农业面临着人口迅速增长带来的日益增长的需求以及水资源和耕地资源不足的挑战，而气候变化的预期影响将进一步减少这些资源，从而加剧了这一挑战。最近的政府政策侧重于大型项目，以满足不断增长的需求，而减少了对低收入农民的生计和经济可持续性的关注。需要深入了解农业人口的变化和变化，以提高应对这些挑战的政策的有效性。本研究旨在了解埃及农户内部的异质性，确定最能描述这些差异的特征，并追踪该部门近年来的发展及其对背景因素的依赖。我们根据 2012 年和 2018 年埃及劳动力市场小组调查进行了类型分析，确定并使用 12 个分类变量和 31 个连续变量来描述农户。高度倾斜的连续变量被转换，高度相关的变量被删除。随后，进行了因子分析以确定哪些变量对数据集中的变化影响最大。使用层次聚类来识别聚类的数量，并进行聚类分析来定义聚类。通过跟踪两次调查中出现的家庭并确定其类型在两次调查之间的变化，可以确定集群的演变。对家庭人口变化影响最大的变量是收入多样化程度、种植强度和单位面积用水量。 聚类分析确定了四个集群，分别是专业农业、乡村农业、多种收入和地主家庭。放弃农业活动的比例很高，2018 年放弃农业活动的家庭中有 45% 曾在 2012 年参与农业。收入多元化趋势明显，2018 年新从事农业活动的家庭中有 59% 属于多元化收入家庭。收入家庭集群。分析表明，一种明显的趋势是摆脱对农业收入的依赖，这给小农农业的可持续性带来了风险。利用家庭类型的特征，本研究为政策制定者提供了模拟对旨在提高用水效率和增加最低收入家庭收入的政策的反应的机会，并调查如何最有效地满足不断增长的需求。此外，它还强化了由于环境和社会经济挑战而减少农业活动参与的全球趋势。