The study employed high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) to simulate tropical cyclones (TCs) and evaluated two TC genesis potential indices in reflecting projected TC changes in the western North Pacific (WNP) under a warming scenario. Both indices accurately represented the seasonal variation of TC genesis frequency (TCGF) and its spatial distribution in historical simulations and observation data. The widely-used TC genesis potential index (χGPI) projected a significant increase in TCGF in response to a warmer ocean surface. However, this projection conflicted with the significant reduction in the model projection due to the dominant control of SST on the χGPI. Higher SST in remote ocean basins often over dominated the destabilization effect of in-situ warmer SST and caused more stable atmospheric conditions in the WNP, resulting in fewer TC occurrences. By contrast, the revised index (χMqGPI), which considers gross moisture condensation, projected a TCGF decrease that more accurately reflected the decreasing trend of TCGF in the warming simulations by AGCM, although the degree of reduction was smaller than that derived directly from TC detection scheme. The results suggest the plausibility of using χMqGPI, based on the results of multimodel coarse-resolution CMIP6 climate models, to project future changes in TCGF in the WNP.

中文翻译：

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使用高分辨率 GCM 和生成潜力指数预测西北太平洋热带气旋生成的未来


该研究采用高分辨率大气环流模型（AGCM）来模拟热带气旋（TC），并评估了两个TC生成潜力指数，以反映变暖情景下西北太平洋（WNP）的预计TC变化。这两个指数准确地反映了TC生成频率（TCGF）的季节变化及其在历史模拟和观测数据中的空间分布。广泛使用的 TC 生成潜力指数 (χGPI) 预测 TCGF 会因海洋表面变暖而显着增加。然而，由于 SST 对 χGPI 的主导控制，该预测与模型预测的显着降低相冲突。偏远海洋盆地较高的海表温度通常会超过原地较温暖海表温度的不稳定效应，并导致西北部地区的大气条件更加稳定，从而导致热带气旋的发生较少。相比之下，考虑总水汽凝结的修正指数（χMqGPI）预测TCGF下降，更准确地反映了AGCM变暖模拟中TCGF的下降趋势，尽管下降程度小于直接从TC检测得出的下降程度方案。结果表明，基于多模式粗分辨率 CMIP6 气候模型的结果，使用 χMqGPI 来预测 WNP 中 TCGF 的未来变化是合理的。