Return migration intentions are complex and are not necessarily followed by future return migration. This study compares successful return or repeated migration with self‐declared return intentions. It takes advantage of the latest and unique German Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP) survey dropout studies and fieldwork to observe a wider return migration window than reported in the literature to answer the question of whether return migration intentions eventually coincided with actual emigration behaviours. Moreover, return migration estimates are examined over this long‐observed return window. This empirical analysis explores (1) whether return intentions eventually materialize, (2) whether they can eventually predict actual return behaviours and (3) whether the determinants of actual and predicted return based on intentions are similar. Overall, my results support that migration intentions can predict actual return behaviour. While the underlying results show discrepancies in the predictors of return intentions and those of actual returns, they show emigration intentions as significant predictors of actual future emigration. Moreover, the findings suggest that life satisfaction significantly correlates with the individual intention to remigrate. Both effects are highly significant.

中文翻译：

---

微开大门：德国移民的回国意愿与实现


回国移民的意图是复杂的，并且不一定是未来回国移民的遵循。本研究将成功返回或重复迁移与自我声明的返回意图进行比较。它利用最新且独特的德国社会经济小组（SOEP）调查退出研究和实地考察来观察比文献报道更宽的回返移民窗口，以回答回返移民意图最终是否与实际移民行为一致的问题。此外，在这个长期观察的返回窗口内检查返回迁移估计。本实证分析探讨了（1）回报意图是否最终实现，（2）最终是否可以预测实际回报行为以及（3）基于意图的实际回报和预测回报的决定因素是否相似。总的来说，我的结果支持迁移意图可以预测实际的返回行为。虽然基本结果显示回国意向和实际回国的预测因素存在差异，但它们表明移民意向是未来实际移民的重要预测因素。此外，研究结果表明，生活满意度与个人移民意愿显着相关。这两种影响都非常显着。