The Arctic is warming three times faster than the global average. Rising temperatures could reduce the snow-covered season and increase plant productivity in the spring, fall and summer. While this may increase carrying capacity of pastures and growth of semi-domesticated reindeer, rising temperatures could also lead to increase the frequency of ice-locked pastures, which may negatively affect reindeer body mass, survival, and reproductive success. We create a stage-structured bioeconomic model of reindeer herding that incorporates such counteracting effects of climate change on the economics of reindeer herding in Norway and Sweden. The model is calibrated using historical data on reindeer numbers and slaughter weights, in combination with historical weather data. We find that one more day with ice-locked pastures has a greater negative impact than the benefit of earlier spring. Then the model is used to simulate possible future economic impacts of three climate change scenarios, under different assumptions about herders' information about future weather conditions. The negative impact of icing outweighs any positive impact of earlier spring for all scenarios, and the potential loss is greater the less information herders have about future weather conditions.

中文翻译：

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气候变化和驯鹿放牧——气候变化对挪威和瑞典萨米驯鹿牧民收获利润影响的生物经济模型


北极变暖的速度是全球平均水平的三倍。气温上升可能会减少积雪季节，并提高春季、秋季和夏季的植物生产力。虽然这可能会增加牧场的承载能力和半驯化驯鹿的生长，但气温上升也可能导致牧场被冰封的频率增加，这可能会对驯鹿的体重、生存和繁殖成功率产生负面影响。我们创建了一个阶段结构的驯鹿放牧生物经济模型，其中纳入了气候变化对挪威和瑞典驯鹿放牧经济的抵消影响。该模型使用驯鹿数量和屠宰重量的历史数据并结合历史天气数据进行校准。我们发现，牧场被冰封的日子多一天所带来的负面影响比早春带来的好处更大。然后，在对牧民未来天气状况信息的不同假设下，该模型用于模拟三种气候变化情景下可能的未来经济影响。在所有情况下，结冰的负面影响都超过了早春的任何积极影响，牧民对未来天气状况的信息越少，潜在的损失就越大。