Changes to Earth's climate affect organisms globally; in marine systems, these impacts are seen through warming water temperatures, ocean acidification, hypoxia and frequent marine heatwaves. These effects may lead to the movement of species to more favourable conditions. While climate‐driven movement is well studied at the adult stage, how the early life stages of marine fish will respond to future variability is less clear. Many fish species are constrained by specific spawning locations or phenology. Spawning in certain locations allows for local retention of offspring, while precise timing can facilitate transport of offspring to nursery locations through seasonal circulation patterns. Our research investigates how changing oceans impact the location and timing of spawning of Bering Sea groundfishes over the next century. We used ROMS SST and SSS model output and NOAA survey data in species distribution models to hindcast and project distributions and centre of gravity for eggs and larvae of six groundfish species. Our analyses found that most of our study species exhibit flexible geography. However, the speed and direction of egg and larval movement did not track the speed and direction of their respective thermal niches. Hence, the projected distributional patterns of adult stages may be limited by their early life stages. This response is likely to be mirrored globally by other species with planktonic eggs and larvae. These results indicate that life history considerations are critical for the management of commercially important species, as effects on early life stages are strongly connected to the success or failure of adult populations.

中文翻译：

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预测未来气候情景下生命早期阶段的海洋鱼类分布


地球气候的变化影响着全球的生物体；在海洋系统中，这些影响表现为水温升高、海洋酸化、缺氧和频繁的海洋热浪。这些影响可能导致物种迁移到更有利的条件。虽然气候驱动的运动在成年阶段得到了充分研究，但海洋鱼类的早期生命阶段将如何应对未来的变化尚不清楚。许多鱼类受到特定产卵地点或物候的限制。在某些地点产卵可以将后代保留在当地，而精确的时间可以促进通过季节性循环模式将后代运输到育苗地点。我们的研究调查了海洋变化如何影响下个世纪白令海底栖鱼类产卵的地点和时间。我们在物种分布模型中使用 ROMS SST 和 SSS 模型输出以及 NOAA 调查数据来事后预测和预测六种底栖鱼类的卵和幼虫的分布和重心。我们的分析发现，我们的大多数研究物种都表现出灵活的地理特征。然而，卵和幼虫运动的速度和方向并不跟踪它们各自的热生态位的速度和方向。因此，成年阶段的预计分布模式可能受到其早期生命阶段的限制。这种反应很可能在全球范围内被其他拥有浮游卵和幼虫的物种所反映。这些结果表明，生活史考虑对于具有商业重要性的物种的管理至关重要，因为对早期生命阶段的影响与成年种群的成功或失败密切相关。