This article examines Japan’s policymaking capacities necessary to address the issue of low fertility, while harnessing the process-oriented theories of policy studies. The author asks why Japan’s policy to increase fertility has not worked as well as some other countries whose efforts have proven more successful. The focus of this study is on process-oriented capacities, which can be defined as an ability of actors involved to avoid conflicts and cooperate on solutions at each stage of the policy cycle. To explore these capacities, or the preconditions for enabling policy options available for the actors, the policy process is investigated using process tracing observations for causal inferences drawing on governmental data, insights from policymakers, comprehensive literature reviews, and pertinent news reports. The author contends that the involvement of broker-entrepreneurs, who recognize opportunities and navigate obstacles, plays a pivotal role in preventing conflicts among stakeholders. Nevertheless, empirical data indicates that merely sidestepping conflicts does not necessarily enable policy effectiveness.

本文探讨了日本解决低生育问题所需的决策能力，同时利用面向过程的政策研究理论。作者提出疑问，为什么日本提高生育率的政策效果不如其他一些已被证明更为成功的国家。本研究的重点是面向过程的能力，它可以被定义为所涉及的参与者在政策周期的每个阶段避免冲突并就解决方案进行合作的能力。为了探索这些能力，或者为参与者提供政策选择的先决条件，我们利用过程追踪观察来研究政策过程，以利用政府数据、政策制定者的见解、综合文献综述和相关新闻报道进行因果推论。作者认为，经纪人企业家的参与能够识别机遇并克服障碍，在防止利益相关者之间的冲突方面发挥着关键作用。然而，经验数据表明，仅仅回避冲突并不一定能够提高政策有效性。