This research highlights a neglected paradox of migration policies: whereas narratives on migrants as a security threat in their countries of destination find little support in empirical studies, forcing migrants to return may increase violence and crime back home. Using migrants’ exposure to deportation threats at destination as an exogenous source of identification, this paper traces the long shadow of immigration enforcement on violent crime in Mexico, recipient of more than 3.5 million deportees from the US over the period 2000–2015. Enforced return is associated with more homicides and a stronger presence of cartels in migrants’ municipalities of origin, as well as a higher sense of insecurity among the population and a higher probability of being assaulted. Identifying these local effects of enforced return are a first step towards unpacking the various direct and indirect channels through which immigration enforcement generates unintended negative outcomes in migrants’ communities of origin.

中文翻译：

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暴力犯罪和移民执法的长期阴影


这项研究凸显了移民政策中一个被忽视的悖论：虽然关于移民对目的地国安全构成威胁的说法在实证研究中几乎没有得到支持，但强迫移民回国可能会增加家乡的暴力和犯罪。本文利用移民在目的地遭受驱逐威胁的情况作为身份识别的外源来源，追踪了墨西哥移民执法对暴力犯罪的长期影响，该国在 2000 年至 2015 年期间接收了超过 350 万美国被驱逐者。强迫遣返与移民原籍城市凶杀案增多、卡特尔现象增多、民众不安全感增强以及遭受袭击的可能性增加有关。确定强制遣返的这些当地影响是了解移民执法在移民原籍社区产生意外负面结果的各种直接和间接渠道的第一步。