Ethnic and religious conflicts frequently evolve into highly explosive situations marked by the sudden eruption of conflictive mass behaviour in the form of leaderless protests or riots. In this article, we introduce a new theoretical approach, the forest-fire model of cultural identity conflict escalation (FFM). The model offers a fresh perspective on conflict dynamics by focusing on the nonlinear dynamics inherent in self-organized collective mass behaviour in ethnic and religious conflicts. It serves to overcome the dominance of rationalist elite-centred and structuralist-institutionalist approaches in the field. We conceptualize conflictive mass behaviour as avalanching “cascades” to facilitate an understanding of the complex dynamics of ethnic and religious upheavals. The FFM unites time-invariant antecedent conditions of conflictive mass behaviour with extremely time-variant triggering events. According to the model, an emboldening emotional climate, characterized by a blend of shared anger, pride and hope, provides the “fuel” that is sparked by a disruptive incident. By integrating collective emotions, triggering events, and leaderless self-organization, the model offers an innovative and substantiated elucidation of the nonlinear, short-term escalation dynamics of collective mass behaviour in cultural identity conflicts.

中文翻译：

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集体情绪、触发事件和自组织：文化认同冲突升级的森林火灾模型


种族和宗教冲突经常演变成高度爆炸性的局势，其特点是突然爆发无领导的抗议或骚乱形式的冲突性群众行为。在本文中，我们介绍了一种新的理论方法，即文化身份冲突升级（FFM）的森林火灾模型。该模型通过关注种族和宗教冲突中自组织集体行为所固有的非线性动态，为冲突动态提供了新的视角。它有助于克服以精英为中心的理性主义和结构主义制度主义方法在该领域的主导地位。我们将冲突性的大众行为概念化为雪崩式的“级联”，以促进对种族和宗教动乱的复杂动态的理解。 FFM 将冲突性群体行为的时不变先决条件与随时间变化极大的触发事件结合起来。根据该模型，以共同的愤怒、自豪和希望为特征的鼓舞人心的情绪气氛提供了由破坏性事件引发的“燃料”。通过整合集体情感、触发事件和无领导的自组织，该模型对文化身份冲突中集体群众行为的非线性、短期升级动态提供了创新且经证实的阐释。