Anthropogenic activities, including climate change, are hypothesized to cause increases in gelatinous zooplankton population sizes and blooms. In the most rapidly changing ecosystem, the Arctic Ocean, this hypothesis has not yet been verified, and gelatinous zooplankton is commonly excluded from large‐scale modeling studies. Our modeling study is based on an extensive biogeographic dataset, aggregating from four open‐source databases (Ocean Biodiversity Information System, Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Jellyfish Database Initiative, and PANGAEA). It includes data on eight of the most reported gelatinous zooplankton taxa of the pan‐Arctic region (Aglantha digitale, Sminthea arctica, Periphylla periphylla, Cyanea capillata, Oikopleura vanhoeffeni, Fritillaria borealis, Mertensia ovum, and Beroe spp.). By coupling three‐dimensional species distribution models with oceanographic components from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2), run for historical (1950–2014) and future (2050–2099) periods under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP370 scenario forcing, we identified species with expanding or contracting habitat ranges in response to climate change. Our projections indicated a general tendency for gelatinous zooplankton distributions to shift, with varying degrees of suitable habitat expansion (largest for the scyphozoan C. capillata ~ +180%) or contraction (largest for the hydrozoan Sm. arctica ~ −15%). Seven of the eight species modeled, which—similar to the majority of gelatinous taxa occurring in the Arctic Ocean—predominantly represented arcto‐boreal and boreal taxa, are projected to shift to northern latitudes. Hence, profound impacts on the Arctic marine environment and associated ecosystem services can be expected.

中文翻译：

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泛北极分布模型揭示了气候变化驱动的主要胶状浮游动物物种向极地转移


据推测，包括气候变化在内的人类活动会导致凝胶状浮游动物种群规模和繁殖的增加。在变化最快的生态系统北冰洋中，这一假设尚未得到验证，并且凝胶状浮游动物通常被排除在大规模建模研究之外。我们的建模研究基于广泛的生物地理数据集，该数据集来自四个开源数据库（海洋生物多样性信息系统、全球生物多样性信息设施、水母数据库计划和 PANGAEA）。它包括泛北极地区报道最多的八种胶状浮游动物类群（Aglantha digitale、Sminthea arctica、Periphylla periphylla、Cyanea capillata、Oikopleura vanhoeffeni、Fritillaria borealis、Mertensia ovum 和 Beroe spp.）的数据。通过将三维物种分布模型与马克斯·普朗克研究所地球系统模型（MPI-ESM1.2）的海洋学成分相结合，在共享社会经济路径SSP370情景下运行历史（1950-2014）和未来（2050-2099）时期通过强迫，我们发现了因气候变化而扩大或缩小栖息地范围的物种。我们的预测表明，胶状浮游动物分布存在变化的总体趋势，伴随着不同程度的适宜栖息地扩张（最大的是水螅动物 C. capillata ~ +180%）或收缩（最大的是水螅动物 Sm. arctica ~ -15%）。模拟的八个物种中的七个（与北冰洋中出现的大多数凝胶状类群类似）主要代表北极和北方类群，预计将转移到北纬地区。因此，预计会对北极海洋环境和相关生态系统服务产生深远影响。