We study the run on the German banking system in 1931 to understand whether depositors anticipate which banks will fail in a major financial crisis. We find that deposits decline by around 20% during the run. There is an equal outflow of retail and nonfinancial wholesale deposits from both failing and surviving banks. In contrast, we find that interbank deposits almost exclusively decline for failing banks. Our evidence suggests that banks are better informed about which fellow banks will fail. In turn, banks being informed allows the interbank market to continue providing liquidity even during times of severe financial distress.

中文翻译：

---

谁能知道哪些银行会倒闭？


我们研究了 1931 年德国银行系统的挤兑，以了解储户是否预见到哪些银行会在重大金融危机中倒闭。我们发现，在运行期间，存款下降了 20% 左右。破产银行和幸存银行的零售和非金融批发存款的流出率相等。相比之下，我们发现，倒闭银行的银行同业存款几乎全是下降的。我们的证据表明，银行更了解哪些同行银行会倒闭。反过来，银行收到通知后，即使在严重的金融困境时期，银行间市场也能继续提供流动性。