If third-wave democratization propelled gains in lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersexual, asexual, and pansexual (LGBTQIAP) empowerment globally, does the contemporary wave of democratic backsliding imperil those gains? To what extent does the potential threat from such institutional erosion depend on the presence of right-wing populists in government, i.e., backlash? Can both threats be moderated by international pressure? Here, I present a theoretical framework for analyzing the interaction of backsliding, backlash, and international leverage as they impact LGBTQIAP empowerment. I then empirically probe this model’s plausibility by analyzing annual changes in LGBT empowerment through 2020 in fourteen new democracies in east central Europe. (The empirical analysis uses the narrower category “LGBT” because of data limitations.) I find that when neither backsliding nor backlash is present, LGBT empowerment expands regardless of international leverage. When both are present, however, international leverage is critical. If leverage is low, I find that LGBT empowerment declines, and the magnitude of losses in empowerment is greater than the magnitude of gains when neither is present. If leverage is high, simultaneous backlash and backsliding are associated with gains in LGBT empowerment. Even if the latter gains may be seen more as “pink-washing” than as sustainable and genuine change, these findings underline the importance of paying attention to international context when analyzing LGBTQIAP politics as the third wave ebbs.

中文翻译：

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倒退与强烈反对：东中欧民主面临的挑战是否会威胁 LGBTQIAP 的赋权？


如果第三波民主化推动了全球女同性恋、男同性恋、双性恋、跨性别者、酷儿、双性恋、无性恋和泛性恋（LGBTQIAP）赋权的进展，那么当代民主倒退浪潮是否会危及这些进展？这种制度侵蚀的潜在威胁在多大程度上取决于政府中右翼民粹主义者的存在，即强烈反对？国际压力能否缓解这两种威胁？在这里，我提出了一个理论框架，用于分析倒退、反弹和国际影响力之间的相互作用，因为它们影响 LGBTQIAP 赋权。然后，我通过分析 2020 年东欧中欧 14 个新民主国家 LGBT 赋权的年度变化，实证探讨了该模型的合理性。 （由于数据限制，实证分析使用了较窄的“LGBT”类别。）我发现，当不存在倒退或强烈反对时，无论国际影响力如何，LGBT 赋权都会扩大。然而，当两者同时存在时，国际影响力就至关重要。如果杠杆率较低，我发现 LGBT 赋权会下降，而且当两者都不存在时，赋权损失的幅度大于收益的幅度。如果杠杆率很高，同时出现的强烈反对和倒退就会与 LGBT 赋权的进展相关。即使后者的成果可能更多地被视为“粉红清洗”，而不是可持续和真正的变革，但这些发现强调了在第三波衰退之际分析 LGBTQIAP 政治时关注国际背景的重要性。