Extreme rainfall events (ERE) during the summer monsoon season have been occurring over most parts of India resulting in flooding and immense socio-economic loss. These extremes are becoming a frequent norm in the hilly and mountainous regions of the country such as Assam. Assam received one of the most historical EREs from 14–June 17, 2022. The present study analyses the performance of a suite of high-resolution ensemble model forecasts for this extreme event in terms of its intensity, and distribution with a lead time of up to 96 h. Furthermore, the 36 numerical experiments are carried out using two different land use and land cover (LULC) data sets (i.e. ISRO and USGS) and three different sets of parameterization schemes (i.e. planetary boundary layer, cumulus, and microphysics).

中文翻译：

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2022年阿萨姆邦强降雨模型预测偏差调查与技巧预测


印度大部分地区在夏季季风季节发生了极端降雨事件（ERE），导致洪水和巨大的社会经济损失。在阿萨姆邦等丘陵山区，这些极端现象正在成为一种常见的常态。阿萨姆邦在 2022 年 6 月 14 日至 6 月 17 日期间收到了历史最悠久的 ERE 之一。本研究分析了一套高分辨率集合模型对这一极端事件的预测性能，包括其强度和分布，提前时间为至 96 小时。此外，这 36 个数值实验是使用两个不同的土地利用和土地覆盖 (LULC) 数据集（即 ISRO 和 USGS）和三组不同的参数化方案（即行星边界层、积云和微物理）进行的。