This study aimed to evaluate the stability of cacao clone production by analyzing the dynamics of pod production over time. It investigates correlations in multi-year production levels and explores how genetics influence both intra-annual and inter-annual temporal production dynamics of total and healthy pods. To address these questions, data were analysed from a clonal cacao trial conducted over a period of 18 years in Costa Rica. Longitudinal data analysis provided a clearer understanding of the link between yields over successive years. The best-fit model proved to be the ante-dependence model. This model indicated that the correlation between two successive years was relatively stable, and the correlation between years decreased as the interval between years increased. These correlations are also higher as the age of the trees increases. The clones differ more in terms of their production of healthy pods than total pod production. Four dynamic patterns, considering both intra- and inter-annual production, were identified, revealing differences in production timing and distinct peaks for each class. Inter-annual variability analysis revealed differences in healthy pod production among classes, with some displaying more sustainable production dynamics over 18 years. Intra-annual variability analysis showed significant variation in production periods among clones, with different production distributions throughout the year allowing selection of escape and or resistant clones. The study emphasized the importance of genetics in sustainable cacao production, with potential implications for clonal selection. It was suggested to combine clones of different classes to mitigate risks and spread harvests, emphasizing that resilience is a crucial criterion in cacao breeding programs to effectively meet new challenges. Further research is recommended to explore the influence of various environmental factors and facilitate more efficient selection in perennial crops, with the aim of selecting more resilient clones, a particularly important objective in the context of climate change.

本研究旨在通过分析豆荚生产随时间的动态来评估可可克隆生产的稳定性。它研究了多年生产水平的相关性，并探讨了遗传学如何影响总和健康豆荚的年内和年际时间生产动态。为了解决这些问题，我们对在哥斯达黎加进行了 18 年的克隆可可试验的数据进行了分析。纵向数据分析使人们更清楚地了解连续几年的收益率之间的联系。事实证明，最佳拟合模型是前依赖模型。该模型表明，连续两年之间的相关性相对稳定，并且随着年份间隔的增加，年份之间的相关性降低。随着树龄的增加，这些相关性也更高。这些克隆在健康豆荚产量方面的差异大于豆荚总产量的差异。考虑到年内和年际产量，确定了四种动态模式，揭示了每个类别的生产时间和不同峰值的差异。年际变异分析揭示了不同类别之间健康豆荚生产的差异，其中一些在 18 年内表现出更可持续的生产动态。年内变异性分析显示，克隆之间的生产期存在显着差异，全年不同的生产分布允许选择逃逸和/或抗性克隆。该研究强调了遗传学在可持续可可生产中的重要性，对克隆选择具有潜在影响。有人建议将不同类别的克隆结合起来，以降低风险并扩大收成，并强调恢复力是可可育种计划中有效应对新挑战的关键标准。建议进一步研究探索各种环境因素的影响，促进多年生作物的更有效选择，以选择更具弹性的无性系，这是气候变化背景下尤为重要的目标。