Climate change continues to exert pressure on ocean ecosystems. The fisheries‐related responses, such as altered body growth, recruitment and spatial distribution of the targeted stock(s), have generally been reasonably well investigated. Nevertheless, there are still important knowledge gaps in how biophysical drivers impact stock productivity and thereby sustainable harvest levels. Considering this, we investigated 26 fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, a region characterized by accelerated climate change effects and a diverse set of fisheries. A novel, stepwise, Bayesian framework to quantify stock productivity was established to identify shared trends and project future patterns, aiming at determining essential baselines for adaptive fishery management in the face of climate change. Despite variation among large marine ecosystems and stocks, an overall declining trend in productivity over the past four decades was observed, especially in high‐latitude areas. These hindcast results were mainly attributed to higher temperatures posing negative effects on productivity, which was dependent on the stock's thermal preference. Contrastingly, the proxy for food availability – gross secondary production – exhibited less consistent impacts. In the forecast, the applied Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSPs) indicated that most stocks are likely to encounter adverse effects, with the worst cases expected to occur under SSP2‐4.5 in the 2050s, and under SSP5‐8.5 in the 2090s. Thus, this study generally not only supports earlier climate vulnerability assessments (‘scorings’) of experts but also provides evidence for revised directional effects under climate change, underlining the complexity of processes affecting stock productivity.

中文翻译：

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贝叶斯框架的东北大西洋鱼类种群生产力后报和预测揭示了明显的气候诱发动态

气候变化继续对海洋生态系统施加压力。与渔业相关的反应，例如目标种群的身体生长、补充和空间分布的改变，通常已经得到相当充分的研究。尽管如此，在生物物理驱动因素如何影响牲畜生产力以及可持续收获水平方面仍然存在重要的知识差距。考虑到这一点，我们调查了东北大西洋的 26 个鱼类种群，该地区的特点是气候变化影响加速且渔业多样化。建立了一个新颖的、逐步的贝叶斯框架来量化种群生产力，以确定共同趋势并预测未来模式，旨在确定面对气候变化的适应性渔业管理的基本基线。尽管大型海洋生态系统和种群之间存在差异，但在过去四十年中观察到生产力总体呈下降趋势，特别是在高纬度地区。这些事后结果主要归因于较高的温度对生产力造成负面影响，而生产力取决于股票的热偏好。相比之下，粮食供应量的替代指标——二次生产总量——表现出不太一致的影响。在预测中，应用的共享社会经济路径（SSP）表明，大多数股票可能会遇到不利影响，最坏的情况预计将发生在 2050 年代的 SSP2-4.5 下，以及 2090 年代的 SSP5-8.5 下。因此，这项研究不仅支持专家早期的气候脆弱性评估（“评分”），而且还为气候变化下修正的方向性影响提供了证据，强调了影响种群生产力过程的复杂性。