We analyze the externalities arising from a bilateral asylum policy—the list of safe origin countries—relying on a tractable model. Using self-collected monthly data, we estimate that including one origin country on the safe list of a given destination decreases asylum applications from that origin to that destination by 29 per cent. We use a counterfactual policy simulation to quantify the spillover effects occurring across origin and destination countries. Individuals from targeted origin countries move to alternative destinations. Individuals from untargeted origins divert from alternative destinations. The magnitude of the externalities depends on the size of the affected flows.

中文翻译：

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移民政策对移民流动的外部性：庇护政策的案例

我们依靠易于处理的模型分析双边庇护政策（安全原籍国名单）产生的外部性。利用自行收集的每月数据，我们估计，将一个原籍国纳入特定目的地的安全名单中，可以使从该原籍国到该目的地的庇护申请减少 29%。我们使用反事实政策模拟来量化原籍国和目的地国之间发生的溢出效应。来自目标原籍国的个人迁移到其他目的地。来自非目标来源的个人从其他目的地转移。外部性的大小取决于受影响流量的大小。