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Third-party countries in cyber conflict: Public opinion and conflict spillover in cyberspace
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2024-05-10 , DOI: 10.1177/00223433241235852 Miguel Alberto Gomez 1 , Gregory H Winger 2
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2024-05-10 , DOI: 10.1177/00223433241235852 Miguel Alberto Gomez 1 , Gregory H Winger 2
Affiliation
The transnational nature of cyberspace alters the role of third-party countries (TPCs) in international conflict. In the conventional environment, military operations are primarily confined to the boundaries of the combatants or a designated war zone. However, during cyber conflicts, operations may occur on the digital infrastructure of states not otherwise involved in the dispute. Nevertheless, within the cyber conflict literature, little is said about TPCs who, by virtue of interconnectivity, may find themselves involved in a conflict not of their own making. Consequently, we examine the political and diplomatic hazards of cyber operations involving these actors. Through survey experiments involving participants from the United Kingdom and Canada, we assess the public opinion impact of an offensive cyber operation’s revelation on a TPC population. We find that while these incidents are viewed negatively, prior authorization and the involvement of an ally reduces this tendency. Such conditions lead the public to perceive these operations as corresponding with their national interest while suppressing fears of the possible consequences following their indirect involvement.
中文翻译:
网络冲突中的第三方国家:网络空间的舆论与冲突溢出
网络空间的跨国性质改变了第三方国家(TPC)在国际冲突中的作用。在常规环境中,军事行动主要局限于交战双方的边界或指定的战区。然而,在网络冲突期间,可能会在未参与争端的国家的数字基础设施上进行操作。然而,在网络冲突文献中,很少有人提到 TPC 凭借互联性,可能会发现自己卷入了一场并非由自己造成的冲突。因此,我们研究了涉及这些行为者的网络行动的政治和外交危险。通过对来自英国和加拿大的参与者进行的调查实验,我们评估了攻击性网络行动的曝光对 TPC 人群的公众舆论影响。我们发现,虽然这些事件被负面看待,但事先授权和盟友的参与减少了这种趋势。这种情况使公众认为这些行动符合他们的国家利益,同时抑制了对间接参与可能产生后果的担忧。
更新日期:2024-05-10
中文翻译:
网络冲突中的第三方国家:网络空间的舆论与冲突溢出
网络空间的跨国性质改变了第三方国家(TPC)在国际冲突中的作用。在常规环境中,军事行动主要局限于交战双方的边界或指定的战区。然而,在网络冲突期间,可能会在未参与争端的国家的数字基础设施上进行操作。然而,在网络冲突文献中,很少有人提到 TPC 凭借互联性,可能会发现自己卷入了一场并非由自己造成的冲突。因此,我们研究了涉及这些行为者的网络行动的政治和外交危险。通过对来自英国和加拿大的参与者进行的调查实验,我们评估了攻击性网络行动的曝光对 TPC 人群的公众舆论影响。我们发现,虽然这些事件被负面看待,但事先授权和盟友的参与减少了这种趋势。这种情况使公众认为这些行动符合他们的国家利益,同时抑制了对间接参与可能产生后果的担忧。