We estimate the equilibrium effects of a public school grant program administered through school councils in Pakistani villages with multiple public and private schools and clearly defined catchment boundaries. The program was randomized at the village-level, allowing us to estimate its causal impact on the market. Four years after the start of the program, test scores were 0.2 sd higher in public schools. We find evidence of an education multiplier: test scores in private schools were also 0.2 sd higher in treated markets. Consistent with standard models of product differentiation, the education multiplier is greater for those private schools that faced a greater threat to their market power. Accounting for private sector responses increases the program’s cost-effectiveness by 85% and affects how a policymaker would target spending. Given that markets with several public and private schools are now pervasive in low- and middle-income countries, prudent policy requires us to account for private sector responses to public policy, both in policies’ design and evaluation.

中文翻译：

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私人质量的拥挤：教育公共支出的均衡效应

我们估计了巴基斯坦村庄中通过学校理事会管理的公立学校拨款计划的均衡效应，该村庄拥有多所公立和私立学校，并明确界定了学区边界。该计划在村一级进行了随机分配，使我们能够估计其对市场的因果影响。该计划开始四年后，公立学校的考试成绩提高了 0.2 个标准差。我们发现了教育乘数的证据：在接受治疗的市场中，私立学校的考试成绩也高出 0.2 个标准差。与产品差异化的标准模型一致，那些市场力量面临更大威胁的私立学校的教育乘数更大。考虑到私营部门的反应，该计划的成本效益提高了 85%，并影响政策制定者如何确定支出目标。鉴于目前低收入和中等收入国家普遍存在多所公立和私立学校的市场，审慎的政策要求我们在政策设计和评估中考虑私营部门对公共政策的反应。