Population decline due to low fertility and aging causes socioeconomic challenges such as a shrinking labour force and regional decline. In response to these challenges, there is a growing discussion about accepting immigrants to mitigate the side effects of population decline. This implies the importance of analyzing local peoples' perceptions as a basis of policy and planning in anticipation of demographic transitions toward a multicultural society. While there are many studies on local problems caused by depopulation and perceptions of immigrants based on contact theory and group threat theory, there has been relatively little research on the relationship between depopulation and individual perceptions of immigrants. This study fills this gap by using survey data of Seoul, Korea, the city experiencing both population decline and an increase in immigrants. It employs the multilevel ordered logit model to explore how the decrease in local population associates with individuals' perception on the need for multicultural immigration policies. The results suggest that individuals are more likely to have a positive view of multicultural immigration policies if their region is experiencing a higher population decline. This finding is significant as it demonstrates that a shift to an unfavourable demographic structure can have a positive impact on perceptions of immigrant acceptance, offering a new perspective on the relationship between immigrants and native residents.

中文翻译：

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韩国人口下降和公众对多元文化移民政策的态度

低生育率和老龄化导致的人口下降导致劳动力萎缩和地区衰退等社会经济挑战。为了应对这些挑战，人们越来越多地讨论接受移民以减轻人口下降的副作用。这意味着分析当地人的看法作为政策和规划的基础以预测人口向多元文化社会的转变非常重要。虽然基于接触理论和群体威胁理论对人口减少引起的地方问题和移民认知的研究较多，但对人口减少与个人移民认知之间关系的研究相对较少。这项研究利用韩国首尔的调查数据填补了这一空白，这座城市经历了人口下降和移民增加。它采用多级有序 Logit 模型来探讨当地人口的减少与个人对多元文化移民政策需求的看法之间的关系。结果表明，如果所在地区的人口下降幅度更大，那么个人更有可能对多元文化移民政策持积极看法。这一发现意义重大，因为它表明，向不利的人口结构转变可以对移民接受度产生积极影响，为理解移民与本地居民之间的关系提供了新的视角。