Knowledge of interspecific and spatiotemporal variation in demography–environment relationships is key for understanding the population dynamics of sympatric species and developing multispecies conservation strategies. We used hierarchical random‐effects models to examine interspecific and spatial variation in annual productivity in six migratory ducks (i.e., American wigeon [Mareca americana], blue‐winged teal [Spatula discors], gadwall [Mareca strepera], green‐winged teal [Anas crecca], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos] and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) across six distinct ecostrata in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. We tested whether breeding habitat conditions (seasonal pond counts, agricultural intensification, and grassland acreage) or cross‐seasonal effects (indexed by flooded rice acreage in primary wintering areas) better explained variation in the proportion of juveniles captured during late summer banding. The proportion of juveniles (i.e., productivity) was highly variable within species and ecostrata throughout 1961–2019 and generally declined through time in blue‐winged teal, gadwall, mallard, pintail, and wigeon, but there was no support for a trend in green‐winged teal. Productivity in Canadian ecostrata declined with increasing agricultural intensification and increased with increasing pond counts. We also found a strong cross‐seasonal effect, whereby more flooded rice hectares during winter resulted in higher subsequent productivity. Our results suggest highly consistent environmental and anthropogenic effects on waterfowl productivity across species and space. Our study advances our understanding of current year and cross‐seasonal effects on duck productivity across a suite of species and at finer spatial scales, which could help managers better target working‐lands conservation programs on both breeding and wintering areas. We encourage other researchers to evaluate environmental drivers of population dynamics among species in a single modeling framework for a deeper understanding of whether conservation plans should be generalized or customized given limited financial resources.

中文翻译：

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水禽生产力的生态和人为驱动因素在物种、空间和时间上是同步的


了解人口与环境关系的种间和时空变化是了解同域物种的种群动态和制定多物种保护策略的关键。我们使用分层随机效应模型来研究六种候鸟（即美洲野鸭 [美洲马雷卡]，蓝翅青色[铲子discors ]、加德沃尔[马雷卡·斯特雷佩拉]、绿翅水鸭[克里卡鸭]、野鸭[绿头鸭] 和北方针尾鱼 [尖鸭]）跨越北美草原坑洞地区六个不同的生态地层。我们测试了繁殖栖息地条件（季节性池塘数量、农业集约化和草地面积）或跨季节效应（以主要越冬地区的淹稻面积为指数）是否能更好地解释夏末环带期间捕获的幼鱼比例的变化。 1961年至2019年期间，幼体的比例（即生产力）在物种和生态层内变化很大，并且随着时间的推移，蓝翅水鸭、野鸭、绿头鸭、针尾鸭和野鸭普遍下降，但没有证据支持绿色的趋势‐有翅的青色。加拿大生态层的生产力随着农业集约化的增加而下降，并随着池塘数量的增加而增加。我们还发现了强烈的跨季节效应，即冬季淹水面积增加导致后续生产力更高。我们的结果表明，环境和人为对不同物种和空间的水禽生产力的影响高度一致。 我们的研究增进了我们对一系列物种和更精细空间尺度上的当年和跨季节鸭生产力影响的理解，这可以帮助管理者更好地针对繁殖和越冬地区的工作用地保护计划。我们鼓励其他研究人员在单一模型框架中评估物种种群动态的环境驱动因素，以便更深入地了解鉴于财政资源有限，保护计划是否应该通用或定制。