Objective:

Substance use initiation during early adolescence is associated with later development of substance use and mental health disorders. This study used various domains to predict substance use initiation, defined as trying any nonprescribed substance (e.g., alcohol, tobacco, cannabis), by age 12, using a large longitudinal data set.

Methods:

Substance-naive youths from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ages 9–10; N=6,829) were followed for 3 years. A total of 420 variables were examined as predictors of substance use initiation, using a penalized logistic regression with elastic net; domains spanned demographic characteristics, self and peer involvement with substance use, parenting behaviors, mental and physical health, culture and environment, hormones, neurocognitive functioning, and structural neuroimaging.

Results:

By age 12, 982 (14.4%) children reported substance initiation, with alcohol being the most common. Models with only self-report predictors had similar prediction performance to models adding hormones, neurocognitive factors, and neuroimaging predictors (AUC_test=0.66). Sociodemographic factors were the most robust predictors, followed by cultural and environmental factors, physical health factors, and parenting behaviors. The top predictor was a religious preference of Mormon (coefficient=−0.87), followed by a religious preference for Jewish (coefficient=0.32), and by Black youths (coefficient=−0.32).

Conclusions:

Sociodemographic variables were the most robust predictors of substance use initiation. Adding resource-intensive measures, including hormones, neurocognitive assessment, and structural neuroimaging, did not improve prediction of substance use initiation. The application of these large-scale findings in clinical settings could help to streamline and tailor prevention and early intervention efforts.

中文翻译：

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青春期早期物质使用开始的预测因子

 目的：

青春期早期开始物质使用与物质使用和心理健康障碍的后期发展有关。本研究使用大型纵向数据集使用各种领域来预测物质使用开始，定义为在 12 岁之前尝试任何非处方物质（例如酒精、烟草、大麻）。

 方法：

来自青少年脑认知发展研究的物质幼稚青少年（9-10 岁;N=6,829） 随访 3 年。使用弹性网的惩罚 Logistic 回归，总共检查了 420 个变量作为物质使用开始的预测因子;领域涵盖人口统计学特征、自我和同伴对物质使用的参与、养育行为、身心健康、文化和环境、荷尔蒙、神经认知功能和结构神经影像学。

 结果：

到 12 岁时，982 名 （14.4%） 儿童报告开始使用药物，其中酒精是最常见的。仅具有自我报告预测因子的模型与添加激素、神经认知因子和神经影像学预测因子的模型具有相似的预测性能 （AUC_检验 = 0.66）。社会人口学因素是最稳健的预测因子，其次是文化和环境因素、身体健康因素和育儿行为。排名第一的预测因子是摩门教的宗教偏好 （系数 = -0.87），其次是犹太人的宗教偏好 （系数 = 0.32） 和黑人青年 （系数 = -0.32）。

 结论：

社会人口学变量是物质使用开始的最可靠预测因子。添加资源密集型措施，包括激素、神经认知评估和结构神经影像学，并不能改善对物质使用开始的预测。在临床环境中应用这些大规模发现可能有助于简化和调整预防和早期干预工作。