Contrary to enduring theoretical expectations on neopatrimonialism, family successions are rare in sub-Saharan Africa. This article demonstrates that family successions are difficult to set up and might fail when rulers attempt to implement them. Building on the scholarship on political dynasties and family successions in broader comparative politics, I demonstrate that the study of failed attempts helps unveil the specific mechanisms of such failure. While scholarship documents how formal rules (such as term limits) constrain the ruler’s succession agenda, I contend that other types of constraints -party politics, opposition coalition, and public opinion-might also strongly impact it but have remained underexamined. The Senegal case study helps uncover these constraints. The article begins by emphasizing the theoretical importance and empirical challenges of studying non-cases of family successions and, more specifically, failed attempts. Then, the article examines the Senegalese failed hereditary succession between former President Abdoulaye Wade and his son Karim. Through a longitudinal single-country case study (2000–2024), this article employs process-tracing to uncover the three main interrelated mechanisms, which led to this failure: Popular resentment towards the succession attempt, a succession crisis due to the ruler’s not leaving power, and elite defection leading to party split. In mutually reinforcing each other, these dynamics converged to block the transfer of power from the ruler to his son. Therefore, this single case study of a failed attempt enhances our empirical and theoretical understanding of what drives variation in the success or failure of family succession. I argue that the role of actors (party elites and voters) in the succession process and how they engage with the rules of the game (mainly over party leadership selection and elections) impact the succession outcome.

中文翻译：

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比较视角下的失败世袭继承：塞内加尔案例（2000-2024）

与新世袭制的持久理论预期相反，家庭继承在撒哈拉以南非洲地区很少见。本文表明，家族继承很难建立，并且当统治者试图实施时可能会失败。基于更广泛的比较政治学中的政治王朝和家族继承的学术研究，我证明对失败尝试的研究有助于揭示此类失败的具体机制。虽然学术记录了正式规则（例如任期限制）如何限制统治者的继任议程，但我认为其他类型的限制——政党政治、反对派联盟和公众舆论——也可能对其产生强烈影响，但仍未得到充分审查。塞内加尔的案例研究有助于揭示这些限制因素。本文首先强调了研究非家族继承案例（更具体地说是失败的尝试）的理论重要性和实证挑战。然后，文章探讨了塞内加尔前总统阿卜杜拉耶·瓦德和他的儿子卡里姆之间失败的世袭继承。本文通过一个纵向的单一国家案例研究（2000-2024），采用过程追踪的方式揭示了导致这一失败的三个主要相互关联的机制：民众对继承尝试的不满、统治者不离开导致的继承危机权力和精英叛逃导致政党分裂。这些动力相互促进，共同阻碍了权力从统治者向他的儿子的转移。因此，这个失败尝试的单一案例研究增强了我们对家庭继承成功或失败的驱动因素的实证和理论理解。我认为，行动者（政党精英和选民）在继任过程中的作用以及他们如何参与游戏规则（主要是政党领导人的选择和选举）会影响继任结果。