While recent research has advanced our conceptual understanding of social tipping points, empirical studies are called for to support and advance the theories. Here, we present a conceptual method to identify whether a tipping point exists and its possible location, in terms of peer effects on green technology adoption. This conceptualization is tested using Shanghai's adoption of electric vehicles. By analyzing self-reported individual levels of threshold in 1,111 valid completes through an online survey, we estimate that the perceived social tipping point in Shanghai falls between 31 and 40 % of peers adopting EVs. Beyond this level, a self-sustaining uptake can be anticipated. Mediation analysis reveals that peer learning and conformity to social norms underpin such peer effects. We discuss the relative importance of peer effects in triggering a broader transition, and find that other factors, such as technology, infrastructure, and policies, are critical for creating an enabling environment to induce positive cascades.

中文翻译：

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通过感知同伴效应识别社会临界点


虽然最近的研究推进了我们对社会临界点的概念理解，但仍需要实证研究来支持和推进这些理论。在这里，我们提出了一种概念方法，用于根据绿色技术采用的同行影响来确定临界点是否存在及其可能的位置。这一概念通过上海电动汽车的采用进行了测试。通过在线调查分析 1,111 名有效完成者自我报告的个人阈值水平，我们估计上海有 31% 至 40% 的同龄人采用电动汽车。超过这个水平，可以预期自我维持的吸收。中介分析表明，同伴学习和遵守社会规范是这种同伴效应的基础。我们讨论了同行效应在引发更广泛转型方面的相对重要性，并发现技术、基础设施和政策等其他因素对于创造有利环境以引发积极的连锁效应至关重要。