Our universe seems to be miraculously fine‐tuned for life. Multiverse theories have been proposed as an explanation for this on the basis of probabilistic arguments, but various authors have objected that we should consider our total evidence that this universe in particular has life in our inference, which would block the argument. The debate thus crucially hinges on how Bayesian background and evidence are distinguished and on how indexical or demonstrative terms are analysed. The aim of this article is to take a step back and examine these various aspects of Bayesian reasoning and how they affect the arguments. The upshot is that there are reasons to resist the fine‐tuning argument for the multiverse, but the “this‐universe‐objection” is not one of them.

中文翻译：

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多重宇宙微调论证中的索引性、贝叶斯背景和自我定位

我们的宇宙似乎奇迹般地为生命进行了微调。多元宇宙理论已经被提出来作为基于概率论证的解释，但许多作者反对说，我们应该在我们的推论中考虑我们的全部证据，证明这个宇宙特别是有生命，这会阻碍论证。因此，争论关键取决于如何区分贝叶斯背景和证据以及如何分析索引或指示术语。本文的目的是退后一步，研究贝叶斯推理的各个方面以及它们如何影响论证。结果是，有理由抵制多元宇宙的微调论点，但“这个宇宙反对”不是其中之一。