Fertility has declined in many rich societies after 2010. However, the factors that explain this fertility decline remain poorly understood. In particular, little is known about how changes on the housing market contributed to the fertility decline. This study examines the links between house prices and fertility in the Netherlands, a country where house prices have risen dramatically in the past decade. Regional (NUTS 3) data for the period 1995–2022 are analysed using within‐between models. The results for the within‐effect of house prices show that after 2010, fertility decreased (more) in regions where house prices increased (more), suggesting that the housing crisis in the Netherlands can explain a substantial part of the post‐2010 fertility decline. Before 2010, however, increases in regional house prices were associated with small increases in fertility, showing that the direction of the within‐effect of house prices depends on the time period that is studied. Finally, differences in house prices between regions are not consistently associated with fertility.

中文翻译：

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房价与生育率：荷兰住房危机能否解释 2010 年后生育率下降的原因？

2010 年之后，许多富裕社会的生育率有所下降。然而，人们对解释这种生育率下降的因素仍知之甚少。特别是，人们对房地产市场的变化如何导致生育率下降知之甚少。这项研究探讨了荷兰房价与生育率之间的联系，该国过去十年房价大幅上涨。使用组内模型对 1995 年至 2022 年期间的区域 (NUTS 3) 数据进行分析。房价内效应的结果表明，2010年后，房价上涨（更多）的地区生育率下降（更多），这表明荷兰的住房危机可以解释2010年后生育率下降的很大一部分。然而，在2010年之前，地区房价的上涨与生育率的小幅上升有关，这表明房价内效应的方向取决于研究的时间段。最后，地区之间的房价差异并不总是与生育率相关。