The global rise of right-wing populist (RWP) leaders has raised concerns about the threat they pose to a cooperative international order, but there is little systematic evidence linking RWP leaders to military aggression. Are RWP leaders more prone to initiating international disputes? If so, when and why? We argue that a RWP leader’s hyper-nationalist rhetoric can galvanize popular support for militant internationalism, but this only leads to pressures for the leader to follow through on their belligerent rhetoric by initiating international disputes in participatory democracies. Using survey experiments fielded in India and Japan, we find strong support for our claims about the effects of RWP rhetoric on civilian attitudes. Statistical results from original data on populist leaders worldwide (1886-2014) then show that RWP leaders in participatory democracies are more likely to initiate militarized disputes. Our results are troubling given the recent increase in RWP leaders elected in participatory democracies.

中文翻译：

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右翼民粹主义领导人、民族主义言论和国际政治中的争端引发

右翼民粹主义（RWP）领导人在全球的崛起引发了人们对他们对国际合作秩序构成威胁的担忧，但几乎没有系统证据表明右翼民粹主义领导人与军事侵略有关。 RWP 领导人是否更容易引发国际争端？如果是这样，何时以及为什么？我们认为，RWP领导人的极端民族主义言论可以激起民众对好战国际主义的支持，但这只会给领导人带来压力，要求其通过在参与性民主国家引发国际争端来贯彻其好战言论。通过在印度和日本进行的调查实验，我们发现，关于 RWP 言论对平民态度影响的主张得到了强有力的支持。来自全球民粹主义领导人原始数据（1886-2014）的统计结果表明，参与性民主国家的民粹主义领导人更有可能发起军事化争端。鉴于最近在参与性民主国家中当选的 RWP 领导人有所增加，我们的结果令人不安。