TP or Not TP? Successful Comparison of Two Independent Methods Validates Total Phosphorus Inference for Long-Term Eutrophication Studies,Environmental Science & Technology

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TP or Not TP? Successful Comparison of Two Independent Methods Validates Total Phosphorus Inference for Long-Term Eutrophication Studies
Environmental Science & Technology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-04-19 , DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.4c01816
Madeleine Moyle ₁ , John Boyle ₁ , Helen Bennion ₂ , Richard Chiverrell ₁

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Validating paleo total phosphorus (TP) inference methods over long time scales is essential for understanding historic changes in lake P supply and the processes leading up to the present-day global lake eutrophication crisis. Monitored lake water TP time series have enabled us to identify the drivers of eutrophication over recent decades. However, over longer time scales, the lack of reliable TP inference means our understanding of drivers is speculative. Validation of lake water TP reconstruction, therefore, remains the “ultimate aim” of eutrophication studies. Here, we present the first critical comparison of two fully independent paleo TP inference approaches: the well-established diatom method (DI-TP) and a recently developed sediment geochemical method (SI-TP). Using lake sediment records from a small eutrophic U.K. lake (Crose Mere), we find a statistically significant agreement between the two inferred TP records with greater than 60% shared variance. Both records show identical timings, with a 19th century acceleration in TP concentration and subsequent declines following a peak in 1930. This significant agreement establishes the validity of long-term paleo TP inference for the first time. With this, we can now test assumptions and paradigms that underpin understanding of catchment P sources and pathways over longer time scales.

中文翻译：

TP还是非TP？两种独立方法的成功比较验证了长期富营养化研究的总磷推断

在长期尺度上验证古总磷（TP）推断方法对于了解湖泊磷供应的历史变化以及导致当今全球湖泊富营养化危机的过程至关重要。监测的湖泊水总磷时间序列使我们能够确定近几十年来富营养化的驱动因素。然而，在较长的时间尺度上，缺乏可靠的 TP 推断意味着我们对驱动因素的理解是推测性的。因此，验证湖泊水体TP重建仍然是富营养化研究的“最终目标”。在这里，我们对两种完全独立的古TP推断方法进行了首次关键比较：成熟的硅藻方法（DI-TP）和最近开发的沉积物地球化学方法（SI-TP）。使用来自英国富营养化小型湖泊（Crose Mere）的湖泊沉积物记录，我们发现两个推断的 TP 记录之间存在统计上显着的一致性，共享方差大于 60%。两个记录显示了相同的时间，19 世纪总磷浓度加速，随后在 1930 年达到峰值后下降。这一重要的一致性首次确立了长期古总磷推断的有效性。有了这个，我们现在可以测试假设和范式，这些假设和范式支持在更长的时间尺度上理解流域 P 来源和路径。

更新日期：2024-04-19

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