Rising temperatures due to climate change are predicted to accelerate the life cycle of arthropod herbivores thereby exacerbating pest formation. Notorious pests like spider mites thrive in areas with high temperatures (32–35 °C), and it is predicted that the size and number of such areas will expand in the coming decades. Higher temperatures can directly accelerate population growth, but also indirectly affect them through changes in the plant's defensive mechanisms. Spider mites have been shown to adapt to plant defences, with natural selection favouring defence-suppressing traits. However, it is not known to what extent suppression is affected by rising temperatures and how this might tie into the rate of adaptation and pest damage. In this study, we investigated the effect of two temperatures (25 °C and 32 °C), on the spider mite–tomato interaction, predicting the influence of rising temperatures on favouring defence-adapted mites. We found that all mite strains caused more plant damage at 32 °C, but temperature did not affect the overall patterns of induction and suppression of defence genes. Although fecundity was higher for all strains at 32 °C, juvenile and adult survival was lower, especially for inducer mites. With these data, we parametrized population models for the two strains over three months, indicating that suppressor mites might displace inducers at the higher temperature, either when it is constant or in the form of heat waves. Our models predict that in areas with higher temperatures, defence-suppressing mites are favoured, which will accelerate and consequently spur pest formation.

气候变化导致的气温上升预计将加速节肢动物食草动物的生命周期，从而加剧害虫的形成。蜘蛛螨等臭名昭著的害虫在高温（32-35°C）地区大量繁殖，预计未来几十年此类地区的规模和数量将会扩大。较高的温度可以直接加速种群增长，但也可以通过植物防御机制的变化间接影响它们。蜘蛛螨已被证明能够适应植物防御，自然选择有利于防御抑制特性。然而，目前尚不清楚气温升高对抑制作用的影响程度以及这可能与适应速度和害虫损害有何关系。在这项研究中，我们研究了两种温度（25°C 和 32°C）对红蜘蛛与番茄相互作用的影响，预测了温度升高对有利于防御适应螨的影响。我们发现所有螨虫菌株在 32°C 时都会对植物造成更多损害，但温度并不影响防御基因诱导和抑制的总体模式。尽管所有菌株在 32 °C 下的繁殖力较高，但幼虫和成虫的存活率较低，尤其是诱导螨。利用这些数据，我们对这两种菌株在三个月内的种群模型进行了参数化，表明抑制螨可能在较高温度下取代诱导螨，无论是在温度恒定还是以热浪的形式时。我们的模型预测，在温度较高的地区，防御抑制螨虫受到青睐，这将加速害虫的形成。