The future of international cooperation in outer space was questioned when, in January 2022, Russia announced that it intended to leave the International Space Station (ISS) in 2024. A symbol of post-Cold War reconciliation, the station has linked Washington and Moscow even when relations on the ground frayed. The ISS has become a bedrock of international cooperation, having welcomed 276 individuals from 22 countries since it was first put in orbit in 1998. Russia’s announced departure from the ISS alarmed proponents of international cooperation in space. Its actions, however, do not signal an end but a new phase in international cooperative dynamics in space. This article examines international cooperation in outer space from 1958 until 2023. Using network analysis, it quantifies cooperative relations between states on space matters to examine the current state of international cooperation in space and its evolving dynamics. It finds that international cooperation in space has become increasingly defined by the emergence of distinct clusters of states, termed ‘space blocs’. Recent patterns of international cooperation in space markedly deviate from past dynamics in three key aspects. First, since 2008, distinct, bound space blocs can be clearly detected. Second, the internal composition of recent space blocs has become increasingly reflective of geopolitical affinities and strategic considerations on the ground. Third, although highly bound and distinct, the more recent space blocs are not entirely isolated and have not instituted any exclusionary practices, which is promising for the future of international space cooperation.

中文翻译：

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1958-2023 年国际空间合作的网络分析：空间集团的证据

2022 年 1 月，俄罗斯宣布打算在 2024 年离开国际空间站（ISS），外层空间国际合作的未来受到质疑。该空间站是冷战后和解的象征，甚至将华盛顿和莫斯科联系在一起。当当地关系出现紧张时。国际空间站自 1998 年首次进入轨道以来，已接待了来自 22 个国家的 276 名人员，现已成为国际合作的基石。俄罗斯宣布退出国际空间站，令国际太空合作的支持者感到震惊。然而，其行动并不标志着国际太空合作动态的结束，而是进入了一个新阶段。本文考察了1958年至2023年的外空国际合作情况。利用网络分析，量化了各国在太空事务上的合作关系，以考察国际太空合作的现状及其演变动态。研究发现，太空领域的国际合作越来越多地表现为不同国家集群（称为“太空集团”）的出现。最近的太空国际合作模式在三个关键方面与过去的动态明显不同。首先，自 2008 年以来，可以清楚地检测到不同的、有界的空间块。其次，最近太空集团的内部构成越来越反映地缘政治亲和力和实地战略考虑。第三，尽管新成立的太空集团具有高度约束力和独特性，但它们并非完全孤立，也没有制定任何排他性做法，这为国际太空合作的未来带来了希望。